NP governor's race a dead-heat

LONDONDERRY, NP -- A new poll released in the New Portsmouth governor's race shows both the Conservative incumbent and NAT challenger in a dead-heat race.

Most political pundits have, in recent weeks, given the edge to former NAT Gov. Welma Sidley, who is seeking a rematch with Conservative incumbent Barry Newkirk.

In a surprising upset victory back in 2022, Newkirk just barely edged out Sidley in her bid for re-election.

After enacting record tax breaks, gutting funding for the state's Department of Education, and transferring millions of dollars away from "green" transport projects back to more traditional, roads-based projects, many political analysts figured Newkirk would be trailing badly in the polls this close to the general election.

But the latest poll from the non-partisan Grantham Institute finds Newkirk actually leading Sidley, 50.4% to 48.6%, respectively.

However, that lead is insignificant, and well within the margin of error, which is plus-or-minus three points.

It's hardly a guaranteed win for Newkirk, but it shows he's not faring as badly as analysts predicted.

The poll is also bad news for the Sidley campaign, as top Nationalist figures and donors assumed she was headed for sure victory.

Now, her electoral prospects are in doubt.

Part of Sidley's problem is her age. At age 80, the former attorney general and governor is much older than Newkirk, age 56.

Sidley's running-mate, former Secretary of State Richard Crux, is also older, at age 78. Newkirk's running-mate, Lt. Gov. Jane Reems, is 64.

While the poll finds similar insights to the 2022 election results, there are some changes.

Population growth in southern and western New Portsmouth has outpaced the rest of the state, with conservative communities like Grantham, Hestock, and Nestley growing the fastest.

Fellwood County, home to Troy Air Force Base, is also heavily Conservative, and has experienced strong population growth.

In contrast, the state's largest metro area, Dayle-Locke, has had more stagnant growth, as high housing prices have afflicted the mostly affluent city.

Still, it's not all bad news for Sidley. She has strong support in Dayle-Locke, as well as other liberal enclaves like Lanard County along the south-central coast, and Terlot County on the southern tip of the state.

Sidley also leads strongly in Erlwick County, home to the university town of Boroughton.

But the poll shows Newkirk with overwhelming support in the rural corners of the state. The two exceptions are Whitaker County and Collier County, which are narrowly leaning toward Sidley.

Kurt Russell, the pollster who conducted the Grantham Institute's poll, says the outcome of this election will likely come down to voter turnout.

"Whichever candidate or party can get more of their voters to show up at the polls on election day, or to mail in their absentee ballots...whoever can do that, they will win," said Russell.

With about an even number of both Conservative and Nationalist voters, elections in New Portsmouth are notoriously close and difficult to predict. 

Virtually no polls predicted Newkirk would win the 2022 gubernatorial election. Most political analysts and insiders -- including Conservatives -- expected Sidley to win re-election last time.

"So it's still anybody's game," said Russell, in an interview with the NPF. "This race really could go either way to either candidate. It's too early to say it's going to go one way or the other. But we can say this race is closer than people thought, and it's going to come down to voter turnout, I believe."

When asked for comment, the Newkirk campaign responded, with spokesman Caleb Entman saying the poll "proves what we already knew -- that Gov. Newkirk is leading in this race and New Portsmouthians support his change agenda over the tired, establishment, rich, blue-blood NAT agenda that Wilma Sidley represents and wants."

The Sidley campaign downplayed the negative poll results.

"We never believed this would be an easy race to win. We knew it would be exceedingly close, and the poll results show that. This is a very close race. Gov. Sidley is not taking this race for granted. She is campaigning in every stretch and corner of the state. And she will not rest until election night at 8:00 PM," said spokeswoman Sarah Beille, referring to the 8:00 PM deadline when voting ends.