Both men are considering running for governor next year, in what would surely be a hard-fought match against incumbent Gov. Kate Morelda (N).
Emaria already beat Morelda back in 2016, when the little known Conservative newcomer inched past the progressive Morelda by the narrowest of margins (51% - 49%). Morelda was seeking a second term as attorney general at the time, and the election was so close, a recount was needed.
After the heart-breaking defeat in 2016, Morelda ran for governor in 2020 and won, easily dispatching Conservative businessman and Christian activist Tom Marelo.
That same year (2020), Emaria won re-election as attorney general over a little-known NAT opponent.
He's now wrapping up his second term in the AG's office, and hopeful Conservatives are encouraging him to challenge Morelda again in 2024, when she runs for re-election as Harlyne's governor.
But sources close to Emaria -- who did not want to be named because they were concerned speaking to the media would damage their relationship with the attorney general -- told the Harlyne Sun newspaper that Emaria is reluctant to challenge Morelda for the governorship.
While Morelda is loathed by Conservatives, she is widely popular among liberal and progressive circles. And her approval rating, at last check, was at 57 percent.
After eking out a win against Morelda back in 2016, Emaria is reportedly hesitant to run against Morelda a second time, fearing another close race. Or worse -- losing to his old rival.
"Julio beat Kate back in 2016, but just barely. He remembers how close that race was. And she's fairly popular now. Not with Conservative voters, but with the NAT and independent voters, she's fairly solid. He's concerned that if he runs against Kate again, he may lose. And then he'll forever be another also-ran," said one source, who asked for anonymity so as to speak candidly.
Another source, who works in the governor's office, told the Sun that "Julio feels right now that he has the upper hand. He beat Kate Morelda seven years ago. He won, she lost. If he runs again and this time he loses, then he won't be as popular or respected as he is now," the source said.
"Right now, everyone talks about him as the only person who has ever beat Kate Morelda. He's kind of seen as a giant-slayer. But if he runs again and loses, then all that clout, all that notoriety, all that fame and success goes out the window," the source added.
Emaria himself has been reluctant to discuss his political future. Earlier this week, a gaggle of reporters in the state capital building rotunda followed Emaria as he walked down an empty corridor. When asked about his future political plans, he told reporters he had nothing to say.
"I'm looking at all the options," he said, as he ducked into a state Senate committee meeting.
On Friday, after news of Emaria's political conundrum leaked, state Sen. Kevin Zandevin (C-Hollis) defended Emaria, telling reporters that the attorney general would 'welcome' another head-to-head match up with Morelda.
"Julio's the only person who has beat Kate Morelda. He's the only one who's done it. We know he can do it, he did it before. So there's no doubt about his ability to win. He's not afraid of Kate Morelda," Zandevin said.
He quickly backtracked, saying he couldn't "speak for Julio," and that the decision to run for governor "is a decision Julio and his family will have to make, and we owe it to them to give them the time and space to make that decision."
But there may be another reason Emaria is dragging his feet on running for governor.
Other sources tell The Harlyne Sun that Emaria does not want to eclipse Assemblyman Frank Kerenbury, who has publicly expressed his interest in running for governor.
Kerenbury (pronounced "Karen-bury"), has served as an assemblyman from southwest Harlyne for over a decade, and the moderate assemblyman reportedly wanted to seek the governorship years earlier, but declined because then-Conservative frontrunner George Garesby was seeking the state's highest office.
"Everybody knows that Frank Kerenbury wants to be the next governor," said a confidential Conservative source in an interview with the Sun. "So I think Julio is maybe a bit cautious, a bit hesitant to jump in the race and step on Frank's toes."
Kit Gaffney, a Conservative strategist who spoke on the record with the Sun, said some Conservative politicians in Harlyne feel 2024 is Kerenbury's 'time.'
"A lot of people feel like Frank Kerenbury is getting up there. He's in his 60's. He's waited patiently for a chance to run for governor. This is his time, this is his moment to shine, and there is some apprehension by other top-name people to jump in the race, out of respect for Frank. People feel like they should demur and let Frank have his moment," Gaffney said.
Emaria told the media earlier this week he has 'the utmost respect' for Kerenbury, and Kerenbury exchanged the kind words, telling The Mavocke Capitol newspaper that he considers Emaria a 'friend as well as a colleague.'
And indeed, both men are known to be on friendly terms with each other, though a possible primary election race between the two could change their friendship.
Kerenbury has not officially announced plans to seek the governorship, but he has stated in the past he would be open to the possibility. And he's been openly critical of Nationalist policies at the state level.
But so far, the only candidates officially in the race for governor on the Conservative side are Tom Marelo, who lost to Morelda in 2020, and Rich Tuller, the CEO of H-Tel. Libertarian businessman Craig Boden is also considering a run, but has not officially thrown his hat into the ring.
Recent polling shows all three men fall far short of beating Morelda.
However, a poll conducted this week by the University of Harlyne found both Julio Emaria and Frank Kerenbury tied with Morelda in separate head-to-head match ups.
For now, the Harlyne Conservative Party is split between those who favor Emaria and those who favor Kerenbury. There's also a substantial third group, perhaps even larger than the pro-Emaria and pro-Kerenbury factions, who favor someone else more right-wing.
While Emari's policies and record is considerably to the right of Kerenbury's, both men are viewed as "too moderate" by the Conservative Party's hardline right voters.
Those folks may favor Marelo or Boden, who are the most right-wing candidates who have emerged.
Assemblyman Steve Frenitch is also considering a bid for governor, and as a strong Conservative, he too could win over the hard-right faction of the party.
Party leaders, however, including former Governor and current Senator George Garesby, are hoping the party and its voters quickly coalesce around their gubernatorial nominee, whoever it ends up being.
The goal is not just to make Morelda a one-term governor, but to undo the liberal policies she and her allies in the state legislature have enacted in recent years, according to Conservative activists.
"When all the dust settles, what really matters is not so much who our CNS candidate is, but getting rid of Morelda and her minions," said Conservative activist Shannon White, who spoke with the Sun.
"We want Harlyne to become the next Ansleigha...a blue state that turns red and vanquishes liberals. That's our goal," she stated with determination.
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