KOEURN, Ansleigha -- For the first time in nine years, the state of Ansleigha will have an open governor's race in the 2020 election.
Ansleigha is a notorious battle ground state, with roughly equal amounts of Conservative and Nationalist voters.
Naturally, the Nationalist Party should have a decent shot at taking the state's governorship, after outgoing Conservative Governor Dale Lindstrom leaves due to term limits.
Yet recent polling has shown all eight NAT gubernatorial candidates trailing the CNS front runner, actor Sam Baskingwood.
Both parties had eight candidates apiece running at one point, though a few have dropped out on each side.
But the polls, conducted by the non-partisan Grantham Institute (GI) in neighboring New Portsmouth, show all the NAT's candidates significantly behind Baskingwood, a political newcomer who has high name recognition and solid fundraising.
On the NAT side, Churchtown Mayor Paul Biddington and state Attorney General Jon Erickson are the leading candidates, both taking 19% each in the GI poll of NAT voters.
And both trail Baskingwood: Erickson by 42% to 55%, Biddington by a punishing 38% to 57%, respectively.
Speaker of the State House, Becky Grael, comes in third place among likely NAT voters, with 15 percent, with fiery businesswoman Rosamond Burkes right behind her with 14 percent and Carlinegan businessman Russ Hawley with 13 percent.
Grael trails Baskingwood by 20 points (38%-58%), Hawley trails him by nine (44%-53%).
Only Burkes - the controversial, outspoken, wealthy coal mining executive and activist, comes close to beating Baskingwood. She trails the actor by three points, 46%-49%, respectively.
Koeurn City Councillor Paris Westerman, businessman Pete Coble and activist Patti Layne all poll in the single digits among likely NAT voters. Baskingwood crushes all of them in head-to-head match-ups: 57%-40% (Westerman), 53%-41% (Coble) and 55%-42% for Layne.
For Nationalist Party leaders, it's a nightmare scenario. After nine years of a Conservative governor, the 2020 election should be a prime opportunity for the NAT to pick up the state's governorship.
But early polling shows a grim future for the party in 2020.
It appears the state NAT may be headed for a repeat of past elections.
In 2010, Conservative Governor Dale Lindstrom beat Nationalist candidate Elliot Androlov 55%-45% in a special election for a two-year term.
Two years later, Lindstrom again held off Androlov, this time by a 54%-46% margin.
And in 2016, Lindstrom defeated NAT nominee Mark Haller, again by a 54%-46% margin.
Now party leaders are panicking, fearing they may fall again in 2020 to Baskingwood.
Despite having no political experience, Baskingwood is a well-known celebrity, and has close political ties to prominent Conservatives.
Though he's running as a Conservative, the wealthy actor has donated to candidates from both parties in the past.
Not only is the NAT likely to face a well-known and deep-pocketed Conservative rival in Baskingwood, their top candidates are struggling.
Many NAT insiders believe Paul Biddington, the outspoken and aloof mayor of Churchtown, is too liberal to win a general election.
As a strong progressive, Biddington enjoys strong support from the state's NAT primary voters. But he flops in general election polling, where voters are much more moderate.
Additionally, his abrasive personality turns off many voters in a state that values civility, critics say.
"If Nationalists pick Paul Biddington as their nominee for governor in 2020, we might as well just forfeit the race the next day," said one party figure, who asked to remain anonymous so as to avoid causing internal party strife.
Party leaders say similar things about state Speaker of the House Becky Grael, who also is known for having an abrasive personality and a far-left political ideology.
Rosamond Burkes isn't far-left politically, but the wealthy businesswoman has been called "the female version of Donald Trump," and is known for having no filter when speaking to the media or in debates.
Attorney General Jon Erickson is more centrist and less divisive, but many see him as a political opportunist, since he just won the attorney generalship in 2016.
"Jon Erickson is a great candidate but it seems like he's just trying to climb the ladder way too quickly," said the same NAT party official, who asked for anonymity discussing internal party issues.
The other contenders are "fine candidates" but lack the name recognition or support from party leadership, sources say.
Some concerned Nationalists have suggested the party should recruit Assemblyman Lane Kearster to run.
A former mayor of Koeurn, Kearster is well-respected by members of both parties and is highly bipartisan, yet he's progressive enough to satisfy the left-wing NAT base, supporters say.
But Kearster already ruled out a run for governor, opting instead to run for re-election to the Assembly.
Some party members, though, say there's no need to panic yet.
The large field of candidates will winnow down, they say. And there's no guarantee Sam Baskingwood, the popular, well-known actor, will win the Conservative Party's primary either.
Indeed, Baskingwood faced seven other contenders when he first announced his candidacy. But since then, four have dropped out or switched races.
Pat Ramsey, a former school librarian, and later, international trader, first considered running for secretary of state, but ultimately chose to run for the Federal Senate, challenging NAT incumbent John Schauman, who is up for re-election in 2020.
McKendra Brown, a former assemblywoman, dropped out of the governor's race, announcing she will instead seek the vacant secretary of state position.
Bill Haas, an assemblyman from Gilliam, dropped out and will seek re-election to the Assembly.
And financial analyst Tom Burkett dropped out of politics altogether, saying he will not run for any other office.
All four now-former candidates endorsed Baskingwood.
But Basingwood will not have a clear path to the party's nomination.
He's still facing three opponents, most notably, right-wing Gilliam car salesman Lou Gibbs, who has criticized Baskingwood for being too moderate.
Assemblyman Nick Winsich and current Lt. Gov. Greg Lyons also remain in the race, though they both trail Baskingwood and Gibbs significantly.
Another factor that remains uncertain is a possible Independent bid by Nationalist Rosamond Burkes.
The outspoken, crude candidate has struggled to find her place in the NAT Party because of her conservative positions on energy and race relations.
It's possible she may drop out of the NAT race and run for governor as an Independent.
Former Senator Paul Ludtke, a former Conservative-turned-Democratic Reformist (DR), may also mount a third-party bid.
Ludtke previously represented Ansleigha in the Senate as a Conservative, but switched to the DR Party because of its pro-interventionist foreign policy and its lack of concern over the federal budget deficit.
In short, the Ansleigha governor's race is far from decided. Many variables still remain up in the air. But concern is growing in the Nationalist Party, and more acrimony is likely.
Just this week, Paris Westerman, the Koeurn City Councillor who was running for governor, exited the race. Westerman announced he will instead run for mayor of Koeurn.
In his announcement, he also praised the less divisive candidates in the race, ultimately throwing his support to Patti Layne.
"We have a lot of outspoken, angry people running for governor right now," said Westerman. "We need a candidate who can not just criticize and attack their opponent, but someone who can offer hope to Ansleighans."
Outgoing Governor Dale Lindstrom initially endorsed his Lt. Governor, Greg Lyons. But with Lyons trailing in the polls, Lindstrom has since said he would endorse any of the candidates except Lou Gibbs.
"There are seven candidates who would make a great governor," said Lindstrom at the early stages of the campaign, when eight candidates were in the race. A reporter pointed out there were eight candidates total running.
"Yes, I'm aware. There are seven who would make a great governor," he said with a hint of sarcasm, implying Lou Gibbs was the one candidate he would not support.
In response, Gibbs called Lindstrom "a wimp" and "basically a Nationalist."
"Dale Lindstrom will go down in history as a wimp who was basically a Nationalist and did little for this state," Gibbs told a crowd of supporters.
"In 2020, we're going to shock the political establishment, just like Donald Trump did in the USA in 2016. We're going to show them that the political class doesn't always win. Regular people like me, a car salesman from Gilliam, can win, because people want someone who's not afraid to speak the truth and get things done."
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