Rosamond Burkes says she won't run for Ansleigha governor in 2024 -- not yet, anyway

CARLINEGAN, Ansleigha -- Outspoken coal and oil heiress Rosamond Burkes, who previously upended elections for federal senate and governor in Ansleigha, has said she will not mount another bid for governor in 2024.

Burkes, who has long-bedeviled politicians from both parties, said she will reluctantly stand down in 2024.

"I thought long and hard about running for governor again," she told the NPF. "I'm not totally pleased with 'Sell-out Sam' or with the NAT candidates. But I think it's better if I stay out of this one and save my energy for the next fight."

Burkes previously ran for governor in 2020 as a Nationalist, then changed her affiliation to "Independent."

In that contest, she placed third with 26 percent, while Nationalist Becky Grael took 34 percent, and Conservative Sam Baskingwood took 35 percent. 

She has been openly critical of Baskingwood, whom she calls 'Sell-out Sam.' 

She's also taken aim at Nationalist politicians for what she considers their soft-on-crime policies.

"I still believe both parties in this state are broken and need to be fixed. And the only way we can fix them is by a third-party candidate like me, or someone else, beating them. That's the only way to get their attention. By defeating them at the ballot box," she told the NPF.

While Burkes has never officially been affiliated with the Conservative Party, she appeals to many rural, populist, and tough-on-crime voters who traditionally support the CNS.

Her record on environmental issues is mixed. She's on record mocking climate change activists, and her oil and coal companies have been cited for pollution violations by the federal department of environmental protection.

But she's also donated money to stop deforestation and to help protect endangered species.

And on abortion rights, Burkes has been outspokenly in favor of a woman's right to choose.

In 2020, Burkes considered running as a Conservative for governor. But she ultimately chose to run as a Nationalist, citing her life-long membership in the party.

When polls showed she would lose the NAT nomination, she switched her affiliation to "Independent" and launched a third-party campaign.

Polls show she mostly siphoned votes from Baskingwood. However, her pro-workers rights policies and her abortion rights stance also won her support from traditional NAT voters too.

As the 2024 governor's race looms, candidates in both parties were once again concerned the unpredictable and volatile Burkes would run again and act as a "spoiler" candidate.

But those concerns have subsided, for now. 

Many political leaders from both sides fear Burkes, who is known for her rash decision-making and her penchant for surprise, may change her mind.

"If she runs for governor again, she probably won't win, but she will certainly be a force to contend with. She'll take votes from both sides, which means whoever wins will win with 33 percent or 35 percent or 40 percent instead of a majority or a strong plurality," Al Greenfield, a veteran NAT campaign strategist, told the NPF.

When asked if she would reconsider and jump in the race later, Burkes answered "probably not."

"But you never say never. It depends on how well Sam does, and how well the race goes. If it starts going south and it's clear the voters don't want any of them [who are running], then I may have to step back in the race."

"But it's time for Sam [Baskingwood] to stand on his own two feet. We'll see if he can," she said.

Burkes told reporters she considers herself 'middle-of-the-road' politically, and she believes she helped Baskingwood win three years ago.

"It's true I took some of his voters away from him. But I took a lot of votes from the NAT too. And that helped Sam. Without me, if he ran just him versus Becky Grael, he would have lost. He should be thanking me," said a confident Burkes.

Polls taken directly before the 2020 gubernatorial election showed Baskingwood actually would win in a head-to-head match up with Grael, contradicting Burkes' claims.

But nonetheless, the blunt, elderly candidate has doubled-down on her campaign insight.

She does give credit to Baskingwood for bringing down crime in Ansleigha 'somewhat.'

And she says Baskingwood, with his low-tax policies, is better for Ansleigha's economy than pro-tax Nationalists.

But that's where her compliments end.

"He's still weak. He's still giving in to the quote-unquote 'establishment.' He's still letting people push him around and tell him what to do. And that bothers me. I don't let people do that to me, and I don't think a governor should be that passive."

Expectedly, the Baskingwood campaign sees things differently.

"Governor Baskingwood has brought down crime dramatically with his pro-police and tough-on-crime policies," said spokesman Jared Leif. "His pro-business, anti-tax policies have helped Ansleigha's economy recover from COVID, and he has reduced government bureaucracy and red tape to make business and life easier to conduct here in Ansleigha."

Indeed, polls show Baskingwood, a well-known former actor, receiving high marks from Ansleighans for his handling of the state's top job.

Nationalist candidates have been reluctant to challenge Baskingwood.

Last month, Grael, speaker of the state house of representatives, said she would not run for governor again in 2024.

Businessman Russ Hawley, Grael's running mate in 2020, said he also would not seek the governorship.

Former Koeurn mayor and current assemblyman Lane Kearster also declined to run.

The only declared NAT candidates for governor at this point are state Sen. Paul Biddington of Churchtown, Koeurn City Councillor Paris Westerman, oil entrepreneur Pete Coble of Hawkinson, scientist Bill Seiffert of Gilliam, and former state senator Chuck Yore of Rhodes County.

A handful of lesser-known candidates are also considering running.

And late Friday afternoon, state Sen. Mark Haller announced he is exploring the possibility of running for governor again. He was the unsuccessful NAT nominee against Gov. Dale Lindstrom (C) in 2016.

The NAT is eager for a win in Ansleigha. They've never held the state's governorship, and in 2022, Conservatives swept all statewide races. All four federal senators from Ansleigha are now Conservatives.

With Burkes out of the picture, Baskingwood, who remains relatively popular, is likely to secure a second term, barring a major scandal or campaign-altering event.

But Conservative allies close to the governor say Baskingwood is proceeding with caution, very much aware that the bombastic Burkes may enter the race at any time.

"The governor is going forward with the assumption that Rosamond Burkes will run. He is preparing and planning for a second Burkes candidacy, and the implications that would bring to the race. I suspect the NAT candidates are also preparing for that very real possibility," said one source close to Baskingwood and familiar with his campaign strategies. 

The source asked not to be named because they were not permitted to speak to the media.

In the meantime, Burkes is not running for governor, but she said she will continue to speak out on issues and her observations of the race for governor on her various social media accounts.

She was briefly banned from both Facebook and Twitter for posting controversial content, but her accounts have since been restored.

The wealthy heiress may also use her vast personal fortune to run campaign commercials and advertisements, she said.

"Even if I don't run, I will very much be a part of this campaign and be involved. Ansleigha is my home state, and I care very much about what happens, even if it doesn't directly involve me running."

Grant Riley will not run for Deschire governor in 2024, polls show close race

DOVLIN, Des. -- Wealthy businessman and conservative libertarian activist Grant Riley briefly toyed with running for governor in 2024, but has since decided against a second gubernatorial campaign, he told a Berivian-area talk radio station.

"I entertained the idea," Riley told Mike Garrett, host of K-Talk 1450 AM radio's afternoon "Roadshow" program, Friday. "But there's no viable path with three of us running. It would be a repeat of 2012, the two conservative candidates split the vote and about half the votes go to the NAT."

"I don't want that to happen again," Riley told Garrett. "So I've opted not to run this time."

Riley was referring to the 2012 election, when he ran as an independent against Conservative Robert Mar and Nationalist Jan Beamer. In that race, Beamer came out on top with 49 percent, Mar took 28 percent, and Riley just 23 percent.

Riley had been weighing another independent run against incumbent NAT Gov. Nick Filletter, who is seeking re-election.

But a Riley candidacy would have been controversial. The libertarian-leaning businessman has some views that are deeply conservataive and out of line with the mainstream in Deschire politics.

He's previously advocated eliminating the state department of education, vast spending cuts, and allowing 18-year-olds to purchase alcohol.

And had he chosen to run, Riley would have had to face not only Filletter, but also former Gov. Jay Burns (C), who is close to announcing a rematch bid against Filletter.

Filletter, a former attorney general, narrowly beat Burns, a former federal senator-turned-governor, in 2020 by about 9,000 votes out of more than 3.6 million votes cast.

Burns is now seeking a rematch with Filletter next year. Though Burns has not formally announced his campaign, he has been traveling around the state extensively in the past few months, and has ramped up social media activity.

Burns would likely be the best-known Conservative candidate to run against Filletter. Former unsuccessful  federal Senate candidate Angie Farengatto has declined to run, preferring to run for federal Senate again in 2024 instead.

Mar, a businessman from the western suburbs of Berivian who ran for governor in 2012, has ruled out running again in 2024.

Assemblymen Clay Aioki from Rumley County and Harlan Rueller from Humboltdon have both also declined, as has former Lt. Gov. Barbara Culson, leaving Burns as the CNS' only viable candidate to take on Filletter.

And a recent poll conducted by the Berivian Emblem-Herald newspaper shows Burns has the edge in a rematch with Filletter.

The poll, conducted in mid-July with about 600 registered voters, found Burns leading 52% to Filletter's 47 percent, with one percent choosing a minor party candidate or write-in.

Like most Deschire elections, Nationalist candidates fare well in the Berivian metro area, which is home to half the state's population.

The NAT also does well in the state capital, Northbridge, as well as the city of Brookeford in northwestern Deschire, home to the University of Deschire.

But Conservative candidates tend to dominate in rural Deschire, as well as the eastern and northern suburbs of Berivian.

The poll finds strong support for Filletter in inner-city Berivian, in Northbridge, and Brookeford, while Burns receives high marks in the conservative suburbs and rural northern and eastern Deschire.

Filletter has strong support from NAT voters, something his campaign points out. His policies are firmly in line with the mainstream NAT. He has made fighting climate change a major part of his administration, as well as social justice, police reform, health care access, and abortion rights.

Conservatives sense Filletter is vulnerable, though. 

"Nick Filletter barely won in 2020. He didn't get a mandate. In fact, a lot of Conservative voters in rural Deschire feel he robbed them and stole the election. So there is a lot of anger among Conservative and rural voters. There's also discontent because rural voters feel Nick Filletter and the NAT ignore their concerns and their needs, and force their liberal policies on rural communities. So there is a lot of animosity among about half the voters," said Doug Seriss, a CNS operative who has worked on Conservative campaigns in Deschire but who is not actively working on any campaigns.

"And then the fact that Nick Filletter is pretty lock-step with the national NAT party, that's a turn-off to independent and moderate voters. Jay Burns appeals much more to the moderate, swing voters. He's less partisan and less militant. All of those factors are going to make this a tough re-election campaign for Nick Filletter," Seriss added.

But Nationalists say it's Burns who is radical, not Filletter.

"Before his failed term as governor, Jay Burns was the Senate minority leader in Mavocke. He literally led the Conservative party in the Senate and all their radical, extremist policies. He's as partisan as one can get," said Allan Sandeen, vice chair of the Deschire NAT.

Despite the political rhetoric, Deschire's governor's race will almost certainly be close. The state had the closest Senate race back in 2022, with Nationalist Michael Hayslee winning a litigious Senate race against Conservative Angie Farengatto by just 539 votes out of more than 3 million cast.

Hayslee only prevailed in that race after three recounts and months of litigation.

Farengatto passed on running for governor in 2024, deferring to Burns. But she is expected to announce a third Senate campaign in the coming weeks, challenging incumbent NAT Sen. Trish Potter, who is up for re-election in 2024.

The Berivian Emblem-Herald polled a hypothetical match-up between Farengatto and Potter, and found both candidates receiving 49% apiece.

A spokesman for Potter said the senator is not taking the race for granted.

"Senator Potter realizes that Deschire is a battleground state, and each election victory has to be earned. She has worked hard as a senator and she will work hard once again next year to re-earn the support of her fellow Deschireans," said spokesman Jared Astley.

A close friend of Farengatto's, who asked to remain anonymous because they were concerned speaking to the media would damage their friendship, told the Emblem-Herald that Farengatto is planning to announce her Senate campaign in August.

"Angie had an exhausting run for Senate last time. She won the first count of ballots, but after all the lawsuits and recounts, she came up just short by a sliver. That was very frustrating for her, and she feels robbed. Her supporters feel robbed. But she's not giving up. She's a fighter, she's always fought for everything she has in life, and she will run again for Senate and she's confident and...a lot of people are confident that she will win," the anonymous source said.

Both polls, for governor and senator, show the deep divides between rural and urban Deschire. Experts say next year's elections will likely come down to voter turnout.

"Deschire is very much a battleground state with a roughly even number of Conservative and NAT voters. So it's really going to come down to which side turns out more. Which side shows up to the polls. That's going to largely determine the outcome of next year's close races," said Dr. Bernard Yale, a political scientist at Deschire State University.