LAMBERTH, Kln. -- Allies of Kalnier Gov. Nick Hall are getting nervous after a new series of polls show the incumbent governor with less than 50% support from voters.
The polls, conducted on behalf of the Kalnier Conservative Party by the University of Kalnier and Lamberth Regent newspaper, found Hall tied in head-to-head match-ups with Attorney General Paul DeNario, former Gov. Tony Ritonio, and Assemblyman Mark Radowski.
In all three polls, Hall and his CNS opponents earned 49% each.
Political analysts commonly say incumbents who poll under 50% are in danger of losing re-election.
None of the three Conservative candidates featured in the polls have announced their candidacy yet.
All eyes are on Ritonio, who narrowly lost to Hall in a very close contest in 2018.
Ritonio has remained mum about whether he plans to run against Hall again in 2022.
Hall is up for re-election in 2022, and at age 42, his youth and energy have inspired many Kalnierans.
But constantly-changing COVID-19 restrictions on restaurants, schools, and businesses, and economic uncertainty have eroded the young governor's support.
While the state's economy is still reeling from the pandemic's effects, Kalnier has fared better economically than most states during COVID.
The unemployment rate stands at 4.7% and wages have increased by 1.8%, according to numbers released Monday by the Kalnier Dept. of Labor.
Inflation remains a major challenge for Hall, particularly in the state's two largest cities, Lamberth and Gladwell, where the cost of living is significantly higher than the national average.
Conservatives say Hall's biggest vulnerability, though, is his dismissal of the anti-vaccine movement.
The governor has been staunchly pro-vaccine, and as a state, Kalnier has been strongly supportive of the vaccine also, with 78% of residents vaccinated.
But Hall has repeatedly made critical remarks about anti-vaccine Kalnierans.
"Most of these people (anti-vaccine Kalnierans) are not educated, they're susceptible to conspiracy theories, they're easily manipulated and they believe anything they hear on conservative media or on social media. So we can't negotiate with these people," Hall told reporters in September.
After angry parents filled a school board meeting in suburban St. Pierre County southwest of Lamberth, to protest mask requirements in public schools, Hall dismissed them, saying, "We don't negotiate with terrorists."
When anti-vaccine and anti-mask organizers held a "mask-free" Octoberfest event in Pasquel County, southeast of Lamberth, with thousands of people in attendance, Hall criticized those who attended the event.
"Any parent who takes their child without a mask to a large event with thousands of people in close contact is really, frankly, unfit to be a parent," Hall told reporters.
In response, anti-vaccine and anti-mask protesters launched more protests, including one attended by hundreds of people just two blocks from Hall's south Lamberth home.
State police had to call in extra officers for crowd control.
Signs with catchy and satirical slogans like, "Uneducated and proud of it!" and "Go ahead. Try to take away this 'unfit' mother's kids, I dare you," accompanied by a picture of a handgun, were seen at rallies and saturated all over social media.
"Calling concerned parents, who want to protect their children from an untested vaccine, 'unfit' and 'uneducated' is about as arrogant and elitist as you can get," said Conservative political strategist Glenn Rothney.
"The economy is hurting Nick Hall, but what's hurting him most is his own arrogance and his belief that only vaccinated people with a college degree are intelligent," added Rothney.
Nationalists admit Hall is on treacherous ground politically, but it's not just the culture wars over the COVID vaccine and masks.
"Kalnier is a battleground state. Every governor's election we've had since statehood has been close. Nick Hall won in 2018 by only 1.5 percent, and that was before COVID. So the fact that he's running neck-and-neck in the polls really is not that newsworthy," said Ken Langston, a former candidate for governor and prominent NAT donor.
Part of Hall's challenge, Langston said, is the demographics and political differences within Kalnier.
Hall's progressive policies remain widely popular in liberal population centers like Lamberth, Gladwell, Lockport, and Fall Beach.
But in rural counties, like most Nationalists, Hall struggles for support.
Voters in Kirkenelly and Bellock have also swung heavily against him, the polls show.
Experts from both political parties say the election will likely come down to the suburbs of Kalnier's major metro areas.
"Since statehood, Kalnier's elections have always been contingent on the suburbs," said Langston.
Urban voters in Parma, Gladwell, and Lamberth heavily favor the NAT, as do more working-class, smaller cities like Katherine, Blackpool, Caltrey and Hubble.
But Conservatives have found success in the western suburbs of Lamberth and the southern and eastern suburbs of Gladwell. They also do well in suburban Kellogg County west of Parma, and in regional cities like Elliston, Kimberly and Cammais.
"Both parties, if they want to win, they have to win St. Pierre County, they have to win Parma County, they have to win Graeme County and Drogen County," Langston said, emphasizing the swing suburban areas.
"If your message falters in the suburbs, you're not going to win."
A spokesperson for Hall's campaign told GBC's Brad Donohue that the poll numbers do not reflect voters' true sentiment.
"We are confident that Governor Hall will be easily re-elected in 2022," said Hall campaign media director Josh Hankins.
"Governor Hall is right on all the issues. He believes the COVID vaccines are effective, he believes in a world-class education system, he has worked to make Kalnier's economy one of the strongest in the country with unprecedented growth in tech, aerospace and green jobs, he believes in protecting the environment from wealthy exploiters, he believes in fighting climate change, he believes in providing a social safety net for Kalnierans who are struggling and vulnerable.
"On issue after issue, Nick Hall is perfectly in sync with Kalnierans. They support his agenda and he never takes their support for granted," said Hankins.