Senior senator trails sophomore colleague in primary race
REMMINGTON CITY -- He's Remmington's senior senator, but Curt Blaisek (C) is trailing his younger, less experienced colleague Sen. Jared Lanman (C) in a hypothetical primary race for governor.
The two senators are eyeing the governor's race in 2016, when current Gov. Jen Stevens Taylor, also a Conservative, will be term-limited.
Stevens Taylor's lieutenant governor, Heather Scantino, is not expected to seek the governorship.
That leaves an open field on the CNS side, and Blaisek is the state's most senior Conservative.
Yet it's Lanman -- who at just 36 years old is less tenured -- that's leading the CNS race for governor.
To be fair, he may have served less time in the Senate and politics and general than Curt Blaisek. But Jared Lanman is no backbencher. He quickly climbed the Senate leadership ladder to briefly become interim Assistant Majority Leader for three months in 2009.
A new poll released Thursday by the Remmington-based conservative firm Ace & Watkins found Lanman leading Blaisek 60%-40% in a hypothetical head-to-head match up.
It's hypothetical because neither candidate has officially announced they are running, though Lanman has all but said he will run and Blaisek has openly mentioned his interest.
The Ace & Watkins survey found Lanman leading among the most conservative members of his party, including Evangelicals. The handsome senator also polled well among whites and younger voters.
Lanman's supporters are more likely to oppose social welfare programs and have a stronger distaste for President Brenton Menuhaeo. They're also more likely to oppose immigration and favor making English the official language of Grassadellia.
Blaisek appears to be drawing strong support from the party establishment, including business leaders. He also polls well with Mormons, as he is a Mormon himself.
But his more moderate voting record is hurting him with primary voters.
Hard-line Conservatives first soured on Blaisek in 2010, when he joined a bipartisan group of senators and voted for President Menuhaeo's economic stimulus bill, something the right-wing of the CNS opposed and deemed unnecessary.
Both Blaisek and Lanman score well among college-educated voters, but Lanman leads among men and women alike.
One advantage for Blaisek: older voters. He has strong support from voters aged 60 and up, as many view Lanman as too young and inexperienced.
There is a caveat, however. The poll only measured a head-to-head match up between the two. It did not factor other possible candidates.
No other major CNS candidates are thought to be considering a run. But Helona County Commissioner Mitch Kalliman, who is a political ally and friend of Gov. Jen Stevens Taylor, confirmed to the Dry Springs Outpost he is weighing a run.
Kalliman lacks the name recognition of Lanman and Blaisek, however, and is not expected to garner much support, especially as many party elites are anxious to get new blood in Jannappa.
The NAT side is wide open as well. Remmington City Mayor Graham Alton, who lost the 2012 election to Stevens Taylor by just 531 votes, is likely to make a comeback. But former centrist Sen. Matt Hoffbourn could be a formidable contender, if he decides to run.
Lawyer and political newcomer Dale Lucie of Shanogowee is also contemplating running.
Jill Lassick, who lost the 2014 Senate race to Curt Blaisek, may also run. She currently serves as CEO of Trans Corp. headquartered in Remmington City and has a strong managerial resume.
However, Remmington has never had a female governor, and female candidates have not historically fared well in the state (with the exception of Lt. Gov. Heather Scantino).
Political observers familiar with Remmington politics say it's still very early in the race, but political maneuvering is already happening behind the scenes.
A lot will depend on the state's kingmakers, including Stevens Taylor and Remmington's other federal senators, Conservatives Pete DeBoor and Mark Eisinger (neither are expected to run).
Former Sen. James Owen-Wilson (N) could play an instrumental role in the NAT race. He has yet to publicly endorse a candidate, but sources close to the aging senator say he likes Graham Alton and Jill Lassick.