DOVLIN, Des. -- Wealthy businessman and conservative libertarian activist Grant Riley briefly toyed with running for governor in 2024, but has since decided against a second gubernatorial campaign, he told a Berivian-area talk radio station.
"I entertained the idea," Riley told Mike Garrett, host of K-Talk 1450 AM radio's afternoon "Roadshow" program, Friday. "But there's no viable path with three of us running. It would be a repeat of 2012, the two conservative candidates split the vote and about half the votes go to the NAT."
"I don't want that to happen again," Riley told Garrett. "So I've opted not to run this time."
Riley was referring to the 2012 election, when he ran as an independent against Conservative Robert Mar and Nationalist Jan Beamer. In that race, Beamer came out on top with 49 percent, Mar took 28 percent, and Riley just 23 percent.
Riley had been weighing another independent run against incumbent NAT Gov. Nick Filletter, who is seeking re-election.
But a Riley candidacy would have been controversial. The libertarian-leaning businessman has some views that are deeply conservataive and out of line with the mainstream in Deschire politics.
He's previously advocated eliminating the state department of education, vast spending cuts, and allowing 18-year-olds to purchase alcohol.
And had he chosen to run, Riley would have had to face not only Filletter, but also former Gov. Jay Burns (C), who is close to announcing a rematch bid against Filletter.
Filletter, a former attorney general, narrowly beat Burns, a former federal senator-turned-governor, in 2020 by about 9,000 votes out of more than 3.6 million votes cast.
Burns is now seeking a rematch with Filletter next year. Though Burns has not formally announced his campaign, he has been traveling around the state extensively in the past few months, and has ramped up social media activity.
Burns would likely be the best-known Conservative candidate to run against Filletter. Former unsuccessful federal Senate candidate Angie Farengatto has declined to run, preferring to run for federal Senate again in 2024 instead.
Mar, a businessman from the western suburbs of Berivian who ran for governor in 2012, has ruled out running again in 2024.
Assemblymen Clay Aioki from Rumley County and Harlan Rueller from Humboltdon have both also declined, as has former Lt. Gov. Barbara Culson, leaving Burns as the CNS' only viable candidate to take on Filletter.
And a recent poll conducted by the Berivian Emblem-Herald newspaper shows Burns has the edge in a rematch with Filletter.
The poll, conducted in mid-July with about 600 registered voters, found Burns leading 52% to Filletter's 47 percent, with one percent choosing a minor party candidate or write-in.
Like most Deschire elections, Nationalist candidates fare well in the Berivian metro area, which is home to half the state's population.
The NAT also does well in the state capital, Northbridge, as well as the city of Brookeford in northwestern Deschire, home to the University of Deschire.
But Conservative candidates tend to dominate in rural Deschire, as well as the eastern and northern suburbs of Berivian.
The poll finds strong support for Filletter in inner-city Berivian, in Northbridge, and Brookeford, while Burns receives high marks in the conservative suburbs and rural northern and eastern Deschire.
Filletter has strong support from NAT voters, something his campaign points out. His policies are firmly in line with the mainstream NAT. He has made fighting climate change a major part of his administration, as well as social justice, police reform, health care access, and abortion rights.
Conservatives sense Filletter is vulnerable, though.
"Nick Filletter barely won in 2020. He didn't get a mandate. In fact, a lot of Conservative voters in rural Deschire feel he robbed them and stole the election. So there is a lot of anger among Conservative and rural voters. There's also discontent because rural voters feel Nick Filletter and the NAT ignore their concerns and their needs, and force their liberal policies on rural communities. So there is a lot of animosity among about half the voters," said Doug Seriss, a CNS operative who has worked on Conservative campaigns in Deschire but who is not actively working on any campaigns.
"And then the fact that Nick Filletter is pretty lock-step with the national NAT party, that's a turn-off to independent and moderate voters. Jay Burns appeals much more to the moderate, swing voters. He's less partisan and less militant. All of those factors are going to make this a tough re-election campaign for Nick Filletter," Seriss added.
But Nationalists say it's Burns who is radical, not Filletter.
"Before his failed term as governor, Jay Burns was the Senate minority leader in Mavocke. He literally led the Conservative party in the Senate and all their radical, extremist policies. He's as partisan as one can get," said Allan Sandeen, vice chair of the Deschire NAT.
Despite the political rhetoric, Deschire's governor's race will almost certainly be close. The state had the closest Senate race back in 2022, with Nationalist Michael Hayslee winning a litigious Senate race against Conservative Angie Farengatto by just 539 votes out of more than 3 million cast.
Hayslee only prevailed in that race after three recounts and months of litigation.
Farengatto passed on running for governor in 2024, deferring to Burns. But she is expected to announce a third Senate campaign in the coming weeks, challenging incumbent NAT Sen. Trish Potter, who is up for re-election in 2024.
The Berivian Emblem-Herald polled a hypothetical match-up between Farengatto and Potter, and found both candidates receiving 49% apiece.
A spokesman for Potter said the senator is not taking the race for granted.
"Senator Potter realizes that Deschire is a battleground state, and each election victory has to be earned. She has worked hard as a senator and she will work hard once again next year to re-earn the support of her fellow Deschireans," said spokesman Jared Astley.
A close friend of Farengatto's, who asked to remain anonymous because they were concerned speaking to the media would damage their friendship, told the Emblem-Herald that Farengatto is planning to announce her Senate campaign in August.
"Angie had an exhausting run for Senate last time. She won the first count of ballots, but after all the lawsuits and recounts, she came up just short by a sliver. That was very frustrating for her, and she feels robbed. Her supporters feel robbed. But she's not giving up. She's a fighter, she's always fought for everything she has in life, and she will run again for Senate and she's confident and...a lot of people are confident that she will win," the anonymous source said.
Both polls, for governor and senator, show the deep divides between rural and urban Deschire. Experts say next year's elections will likely come down to voter turnout.
"Deschire is very much a battleground state with a roughly even number of Conservative and NAT voters. So it's really going to come down to which side turns out more. Which side shows up to the polls. That's going to largely determine the outcome of next year's close races," said Dr. Bernard Yale, a political scientist at Deschire State University.
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