HANSBORO, East Deschire -- With less than six months to go before the East Deschire primary, Conservative Assemblyman Dane Gutmeier (pronounced "Gute-meyer") finds himself at the front of a crowed pack in the race for the CNS nomination for governor, according to a recent poll.
The Liberty poll of 786 likely CNS voters found Gutmeier, who represents the seat of Abbott-Allistair in the southern part of the state, with the most support, with just over 27% of respondents choosing him as their first pick.
Christenkerr Mayor Phil Qwenberry, who is notably more moderate, came in second place, with just over 22%.
He was followed by Iraq War veteran and hard-right activist Tim Hutsell of Dillingham, who received 18%.
Former Federal Sen. Roger Gzarno (pronounced "Sz-ar-no") received 16%, and Assemblyman Sam Pyatt, who represents the seat of Pittsgol in the East Deschire panhandle, came in last place with 15%.
The numbers confirm what many Conservative Party leaders have been arguing: that Gutmeier is the party's most viable choice to nominate for governor.
He's only been in the National Assembly since 2010, but the sophomore assemblyman has already struck a bipartisan tone while sticking to his core conservative values.
Gutmeier is backed by the party establishment, but conservative enough that hard-line Conservatives would likely coalesce around him, party officials say.
"Dane Gutmeier is the best-positioned candidate we have to nominate against Lynn DeMont," Michael Ocalis, a CNS political consultant based in Derosa, told the Hansboro Laureate.
But Gutmeier's relative youth (he's 48) could be a problem. Some business leaders view Qwenberry, a political veteran in southeastern East Deschire, as the more experienced and pro-business candidate.
"Phil Qwenberry has been a mayor, city councilor, county commissioner, state legislator and businessman in the Vandershutes region for decades. He knows how to navigate state government and work through the red tape," Chris Donaldson, a Christenkerr City Councilor who serves with Qwenberry, said of his colleague.
Still other prominent Conservatives are not backing either of the front-runners.
Assemblywoman Sara Fraser of Derosa, who represents the seat of Bridgeworth, was an early supporter of Hutsell, who is the only candidate who has officially filed papers to run thus far.
Fraser, who spoke with the Laureate by phone Tuesday from Mavocke, said she was sticking with Hutsell, despite the looming entries into the race by other prominent candidates.
"While I respect Dane Gutmeier and my colleague Sam Pyatt and Senator Gzarno, I was a strong supporter of Tim Hutsell on day one, and I remain a strong supporter of his. I believe he has the courage to take on Lynn DeMont, and the fire in his belly to storm his way to Derosa and fight for conservative change," said Fraser.
She declined to comment on Qwenberry, whom she has said in the past is too moderate.
Two prominent Conservatives who opted not to run -- former Federal Sen. Seth Harkin and Hansboro Mayor Bill Engstrom -- are not marking endorsements at this time.
Many caution though that it's still too early to make endorsements.
"We have a lot of time before the May 13 primary, and we haven't really given the candidates a chance to state their positions and campaign yet," State Conservative Party Vice Chairman Phil Vancell told the Laureate.
Having announced his candidacy way back in August, Tim Hutsell has spent the most time traveling the state campaigning and raising money.
While he has a devoted group of supporters and campaigns with a fervor many politicians don't possess, Hutsell has largely limited his appearances to small towns and rural counties, and has steered clear of the state's larger, more liberal urban centres, where his backwoods, almost redneck-like conservative libertarian values are not as welcomed.
Neither Dane Gutmeier nor Phil Qwenberry have officially announced their candidacy, but neither has moved to quash speculation either. Qwenberry has publicly stated his interest in running, while Gutmeier has privately mulled a bid, though his political ambitions were leaked to the media last fall.
Roger Gzarno and Sam Pyatt have also said they are both considering a run for governor, but have not made official plans.
It's possible all five men will end up in the race, making for a crowded fight for the chance to take on two-time incumbent Lynn DeMont (N), who is running for his third but second full term.
DeMont's last two elections were both close, but his approval ratings have remained high. East Deschireans value his centrist views, his bipartisanship at the state capitol, and his folksy, friendly demeanor.
But DeMont's popularity has taken a hit in the last year, as Conservatives have attacked him for being absent-minded and more focused on national ambitions. They specifically cite his position as Chairman of the Nationalist Governors Association (NATGA) and his frequent traveling outside the state for NATGA engagements as proof the governor has lost his focus.
"Lynn DeMont is a nice person. But he is more focused on climbing the political ladder in the Nationalist Party right now than he is on being governor of East Deschire," Paul Hackett, a spokesman for the rival Conservative Governors Association (CGA) said in an interview with the Laureate.
Conservatives are hoping DeMont's distance from his home state duties will help their chances at the polls in December. They're also trying to tie DeMont to the much more liberal Gov. Christine Gabler (N-Marchenay), who serves as the Chairwoman of the Governors Board.
DeMont has worked closely with Gabler, though the two Nationalist are far apart on the political spectrum.
Still, knocking off the state's inaugural governor won't be a walk in the park for Conservatives. DeMont has deep roots in the Harvest State, and despite East Deschire's considerable Conservative tilt, the state has trended blue in recent elections.
For now, both sides are gearing up for the forthcoming elections. DeMont has actively been raising money, and a spokeswoman for his campaign confirmed the fundraising pace will increase over the coming months.
"We expect to have lots of (NAT) star power here in East Deschire on Lynn DeMont's behalf," said spokeswoman Sara Eckland.
Ansleigha Gov. Dale Lindstrom, who is chairing the CGA for the 2012-2014 election cycle, told the GBC the CNS is prepared for a close race in East Deschire.
"A few months ago, we wrote this race off as unwinnable," said Lindstrom. "I think over the last month or two, the polling and the political mood in East Deschire have shown this is a winnable race, and we will allocate the appropriate resources needed to win."
The Liberty poll of 786 likely CNS voters found Gutmeier, who represents the seat of Abbott-Allistair in the southern part of the state, with the most support, with just over 27% of respondents choosing him as their first pick.
Christenkerr Mayor Phil Qwenberry, who is notably more moderate, came in second place, with just over 22%.
He was followed by Iraq War veteran and hard-right activist Tim Hutsell of Dillingham, who received 18%.
Former Federal Sen. Roger Gzarno (pronounced "Sz-ar-no") received 16%, and Assemblyman Sam Pyatt, who represents the seat of Pittsgol in the East Deschire panhandle, came in last place with 15%.
The numbers confirm what many Conservative Party leaders have been arguing: that Gutmeier is the party's most viable choice to nominate for governor.
He's only been in the National Assembly since 2010, but the sophomore assemblyman has already struck a bipartisan tone while sticking to his core conservative values.
Gutmeier is backed by the party establishment, but conservative enough that hard-line Conservatives would likely coalesce around him, party officials say.
"Dane Gutmeier is the best-positioned candidate we have to nominate against Lynn DeMont," Michael Ocalis, a CNS political consultant based in Derosa, told the Hansboro Laureate.
But Gutmeier's relative youth (he's 48) could be a problem. Some business leaders view Qwenberry, a political veteran in southeastern East Deschire, as the more experienced and pro-business candidate.
"Phil Qwenberry has been a mayor, city councilor, county commissioner, state legislator and businessman in the Vandershutes region for decades. He knows how to navigate state government and work through the red tape," Chris Donaldson, a Christenkerr City Councilor who serves with Qwenberry, said of his colleague.
Still other prominent Conservatives are not backing either of the front-runners.
Assemblywoman Sara Fraser of Derosa, who represents the seat of Bridgeworth, was an early supporter of Hutsell, who is the only candidate who has officially filed papers to run thus far.
Fraser, who spoke with the Laureate by phone Tuesday from Mavocke, said she was sticking with Hutsell, despite the looming entries into the race by other prominent candidates.
"While I respect Dane Gutmeier and my colleague Sam Pyatt and Senator Gzarno, I was a strong supporter of Tim Hutsell on day one, and I remain a strong supporter of his. I believe he has the courage to take on Lynn DeMont, and the fire in his belly to storm his way to Derosa and fight for conservative change," said Fraser.
She declined to comment on Qwenberry, whom she has said in the past is too moderate.
Two prominent Conservatives who opted not to run -- former Federal Sen. Seth Harkin and Hansboro Mayor Bill Engstrom -- are not marking endorsements at this time.
Many caution though that it's still too early to make endorsements.
"We have a lot of time before the May 13 primary, and we haven't really given the candidates a chance to state their positions and campaign yet," State Conservative Party Vice Chairman Phil Vancell told the Laureate.
Having announced his candidacy way back in August, Tim Hutsell has spent the most time traveling the state campaigning and raising money.
While he has a devoted group of supporters and campaigns with a fervor many politicians don't possess, Hutsell has largely limited his appearances to small towns and rural counties, and has steered clear of the state's larger, more liberal urban centres, where his backwoods, almost redneck-like conservative libertarian values are not as welcomed.
Neither Dane Gutmeier nor Phil Qwenberry have officially announced their candidacy, but neither has moved to quash speculation either. Qwenberry has publicly stated his interest in running, while Gutmeier has privately mulled a bid, though his political ambitions were leaked to the media last fall.
Roger Gzarno and Sam Pyatt have also said they are both considering a run for governor, but have not made official plans.
It's possible all five men will end up in the race, making for a crowded fight for the chance to take on two-time incumbent Lynn DeMont (N), who is running for his third but second full term.
DeMont's last two elections were both close, but his approval ratings have remained high. East Deschireans value his centrist views, his bipartisanship at the state capitol, and his folksy, friendly demeanor.
But DeMont's popularity has taken a hit in the last year, as Conservatives have attacked him for being absent-minded and more focused on national ambitions. They specifically cite his position as Chairman of the Nationalist Governors Association (NATGA) and his frequent traveling outside the state for NATGA engagements as proof the governor has lost his focus.
"Lynn DeMont is a nice person. But he is more focused on climbing the political ladder in the Nationalist Party right now than he is on being governor of East Deschire," Paul Hackett, a spokesman for the rival Conservative Governors Association (CGA) said in an interview with the Laureate.
Conservatives are hoping DeMont's distance from his home state duties will help their chances at the polls in December. They're also trying to tie DeMont to the much more liberal Gov. Christine Gabler (N-Marchenay), who serves as the Chairwoman of the Governors Board.
DeMont has worked closely with Gabler, though the two Nationalist are far apart on the political spectrum.
Still, knocking off the state's inaugural governor won't be a walk in the park for Conservatives. DeMont has deep roots in the Harvest State, and despite East Deschire's considerable Conservative tilt, the state has trended blue in recent elections.
For now, both sides are gearing up for the forthcoming elections. DeMont has actively been raising money, and a spokeswoman for his campaign confirmed the fundraising pace will increase over the coming months.
"We expect to have lots of (NAT) star power here in East Deschire on Lynn DeMont's behalf," said spokeswoman Sara Eckland.
Ansleigha Gov. Dale Lindstrom, who is chairing the CGA for the 2012-2014 election cycle, told the GBC the CNS is prepared for a close race in East Deschire.
"A few months ago, we wrote this race off as unwinnable," said Lindstrom. "I think over the last month or two, the polling and the political mood in East Deschire have shown this is a winnable race, and we will allocate the appropriate resources needed to win."
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