The poll, conducted by The Necadia Daily newspaper, shows Downs down by 10 points against her Conservative opponent, state Attorney General Chris Stryde.
Stryde has led in the polls for months, but only by smaller margins. Nationalists were hopeful that raising abortion as an issue would cultivate more support for Downs, as she seeks her second full term as governor.
But the poll shows the abortion issue has done little to move the race in Downs' favor.
If the election were held today, 54% of voters would choose Stryde, according to the poll. Only 44% would vote to reelect Downs, while the other two percent would vote for minor party candidates.
Voters appear receptive to Stryde's moderate conservative agenda. The attorney general has hit on tried-and-true Conservative causes: the state's large homeless population, high cost of living, inflation, and crime, although Kensington has one of the lowest crime rates in the country.
Still, despite the low level overall statewide, there are pockets of the state that suffer from high amounts of property crime. Places like Robertsville, in the north-central part of the state, and Jeunas County, just south of Robertsville, have had large increases in crime in the last year.
Downs is hoping that Kensington's liberal tilt will work in her favor. But while Nationalists normally dominate elections in the state, moderate Conservatives, such as Stryde and federal Sen. Barnard "Barn" Scott, have had electoral success.
The poll, released today, also shows male voters are more motivated than female voters, which is unusual. In order to win, Downs will need to tap into female voters, a constituency from which she has found strong support in the past.
While Stryde leads strongly among male voters (64%-36%), he leads with women by a much smaller margin (52%-48%).
Downs has struggled to quell voter angst over crime and the economy. In a debate last week, Stryde called her "a do-nothing governor," and suggested she had only won the governorship because Kensington is a liberal state and Downs had never faced any top-notch Conservative opponents.
Downs hit back, accusing Stryde of "mansplaining" and mistreating women, "particularly women who are professionals, educated, and who are in positions of similar authority to him," she told moderators during the debate.
"If I'm anti-woman, then why am I leading in the polls with women voters?" Stryde asked. Downs dodged the question, saying "the polls are not exact" and that "women will come home to the right candidate on election day," suggesting most women voters will support her.
"It's that kind of arrogance that voters are sick of," said Stryde. "The idea that just because you're a woman, or a minority, or LGBTQ, you have to vote for Nationalists. You must support the NAT candidate. That's what she assumes, that's what their party and the media assume. They think people owe them their vote somehow. Conservatives believe we have to earn every vote, and that's what I intend to do."
While Stryde is favored heading into the last stretch of the election, Nationalists are likely to hold on to other statewide positions.
Federal Sen. Chris Blair is expected to be reelected, and Nationalist Debbie Kirkendahl is favored to win the attorney generalship.
Lt. Gov. Phil Pratt (N), however, is facing a strong challenge from state Sen. Bill Langessy (C). And Secretary of State Mark Wood is in a similarly close race with Conservative Reed Chansky.
Conservatives have pointed to the high cost of living in Kensington, as well as high taxes and high crime in some areas, as reasons the state actually lost people in the annual population census count.
"There's a reason people are fleeing this state, and it's because of mindless NAT leadership. Nationalist leaders who don't actually get anything meaningful done. They just hold an office and a title. But they haven't fought for the middle class, they haven't fought for average Kensingtonians. That's why people are leaving, and we're going to stop the hemorrhaging when I'm elected," said Stryde in a recent TV interview.
If elected, Stryde will become the state's second governor, and the first male governor and first Conservative governor.
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