Hennemott polls best against Ellsworth

CHRISTEN--KERR, E. Deschire -- Former Gov. Val Hennemott is the leading NAT candidate to run against Conservative incumbent Gov. Mark Ellsworth in 2026, according to recently released poll results.

The polls, conducted by Justicia, a left-wing polling firm, found the former governor from Christen-Kerr to be the best-matched against Ellsworth, who is seeking reelection next year.

The two faced off back in 2022, when Hennemott was in office and she was seeking reelection amid the political fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. In that race, Ellsworth defeated Hennemott 51.6 to 47.4 percent, respectively.

This past summer, Hennemott announced her intention to seek a rematch with Ellsworth. She has three opponents in the NAT primary race, however, including state Sen. Frank Capriatti of Poole, multi-millionaire tech CEO Chris Bymers of Freelan, and Shansho Mayor Patsmith "Pat" Dudragovsky.

Justicia's polling found Hennemott comes closest to beating Ellsworth in a potential election, with 48% of respondents choosing her and 50% choosing Ellsworth.

Dudragovsky had almost identical polling numbers against Ellsworth, though Ellsworth received 51% support in a hypothetical race between the two men.

Bymers, a political newcomer who moved to East Deschire back in 2021 from Wilkonshire, receives 47% support against 52% for Ellsworth.

Capriatti, the most outspoken, liberal and controversial of the four NAT candidates, was far behind Ellsworth in a hypothetical match-up, earning just 42% to Ellsworth's 57 percent, respectively.

The poll results are good news for Hennemott, who has struggled to clear the NAT field in the primary race.

When she initially declared her candidacy for the 2026 governor's race, Hennemott and her campaign staff had hoped the former governor would scare other NAT candidates out of the race. A few potential candidates did rule out a run when Hennemott entered the race, but Capriatti, Bymers and Dudragovsky all decided to stay in the race.

Hennemott and her surrogates have leaned heavily on her three remaining NAT rivals, pressuring them to drop out of the race.

The Capriatti, Bymers and Dudragovsky campaigns all confirmed that either Hennemott herself or her allies have reached out to their campaigns and have urged all three men to withdraw from the race.

Capriatti, especially, has faced strong pressure to bow out, given his less-than-impressive polling numbers and his confrontational personality, which makes him prone to gaffes. But for now, the state senator, who comes from a highly political family, says he will stay in the race.

"I'm running for governor because I believe I am the best person to take down Mark Ellsworth," Capriatti told reporters last week at the state capitol in Derosa. "I like Val Hennemott, and I agree with her on a lot of policies, but let's face it, she can't beat Mark Ellsworth. She already lost to him once. What are the chances she can beat him this time?"

For his part, Bymers, who has few political connections and roots in East Deschire, said he is running for governor and staying in the race because he provides "a private sector perspective."

"One thing that makes me unique in this race is I'm not a politician. I'm the only candidate who is not a politician. The rest of them are life-long politicians. I have never ran for office before. I run a business. I know how to run a company and how to make money. And I think that's a valuable asset that all the other candidates, whether they're NAT or Mark Ellsworth...none of them have ever ran a business before. So I think that sets me apart," said Bymers in a sit-down interview at his home in rural Lynchman County.

Dudragovsky, who has previously endorsed Hennemott and campaigned for her back in 2022 and 2018, said he considers Hennemott to be "a very good friend," but he also doubts Hennemott can beat Ellsworth in a rematch.

"Look, I love Val. She is a very good friend of mine. I've known her for years, I've supported her in the past when she ran for governor first in 2018 and then again in 2022. I campaigned for her, I enthusiastically tried to rally votes for her. But at the end of the day, we all want the NAT to win. We're Nationalists, and we want our party to win. And, to be frank, while I love Val and I think she's great, I am not convinced she can win against Ellsworth in 2026. I think I can beat him. I know I can beat him. And we need someone who can win," said Dudragovsky during a press conference in Shansho last week.

He added that his intention to stay in the race "is not personal, it's just business."

Hennemott responded this week in an interview with Tableau Magazine, telling reporter Stephanie Arrens that she "appreciates" her NAT challengers "passion," but she is best-positioned to take on Ellsworth in 2026.

"I think they're all good guys, they're good men. But all the data shows I'm the best person to run against Mark Ellsworth next year. The polling supports that, I have the most name recognition, I have the most money out of the four of us, I have the most political support, both statewide and nationally, and I know Mark Ellsworth. I've already ran against him once. I know how he operates and what annoys him and sends him over the edge. I know what makes him tick and what makes him make mistakes. I know how to run against him. And I know this state like the back of my hand," said Hennemott.

Asked why NAT voters should give her another chance even though she lost to Ellsworth in 2022, Hennemott dismissed her defeat, citing the "extremely close nature" of the 2022 race, and saying Ellsworth simply won because of a national anti-incumbent wave.

"2022 was a fluke. It was a strong year for anti-incumbent challengers. We were just coming out of the pandemic, and there was a lot of litigation surrounding the pandemic and how government, both nationally and at the state level, handled the shutdowns and the social distancing requirements and all of that. Mark Ellsworth rode that wave all the way into shore. He won't have that wave this time. This time, he's the incumbent, and he is the status quo. We are the challengers offering a better way forward, a better path ahead. And I think the voters are going to grab onto our vision for this state and they're going to demand a change."

Ellsworth was asked about his potential 2026 NAT opponents, and declined to get into the specifics of each candidate.

In a written statement, his deputy press secretary, Allison Reach, said "Governor Ellsworth is prepared to run against any left-wing lunatic the Nationalist Party decides to run against him."

Reach projected confidence heading into 2026, citing a "resurging economy" [sic] and a crackdown on homeless people and illegal immigrants.

"The people of East Deschire are more prosperous today and safer today because of Governor Mark Ellsworth," said Reach. "We are confident that the people of East Deschire will overwhelmingly vote to reelect Mark Ellsworth next year when he runs for reelection."

The four NAT candidates are slated to have their first debate in Derosa on January 26.