ASHFORD'S LANDING, Har. -- Advisors and surrogates of Harlyne Gov. Kate Morelda (N) were initially jubilant when it was confirmed Conservative hard-liner Tom Marelo won the state's CNS primary for governor.
Marelo is, by Harlyne standards, a bit of an extremist. He's anti-abortion. He supports low taxes and making cuts to the state's budget. He is staunchly opposed to electric vehicles. And wants to prohibit transgender children from using their preferred pronouns in schools.
So the Morelda camp was quite excited to hear Marelo prevailed over a more mainstream, moderate candidate in last week's CNS primary election.
Morelda already easily beat Marelo back in 2020, and will likely do it again this year, Morelda supporters figured. He should be easier to beat than the moderate Frank Kerenbury, who was the favored CNS candidate, who also enjoyed the CNS party leadership's support.
However, while Marelo may have squeezed out a narrow win over Kerenbury, and while Marelo may have been easily held back in 2020, he may not be as easily defeated this fall in the general election.
A new poll released Friday finds Marelo trailing Morelda by a measly three points. Morelda leads with 51% to Marelo's 48%, respectively.
Those numbers are far from a slam dunk for Morelda. And those concerningly close poll numbers turned the joyous mood at Morelda campaign headquarters into a mood of panic and fear.
"When we first found out Tom Marelo won, we were ecstatic," said Jay Bukes, a senior advisor to Morelda. "But we have seen the poll numbers, and we know that this race is actually very close."
"We still believe Tom Marelo is the easier candidate to beat. He's an extremist who is out of step and out of touch with the values of Harlynians. And we will point that out every chance we get during this campaign. However, we're not taking anything for granted. We're not going to be presumptive or complacent. We know we have to work hard to convince Harlynians to re-elect Governor Morelda," said Bukes.
The Marelo campaign, unsurprisingly, is touting the latest poll numbers.
"This latest poll confirms what we already knew and what we have been saying for months, but the liberal, elite media and establishment have refused to listen. Tom Marelo is very much a contender in this governor's race. He and Kate Morelda are essentially tied for the lead. This race could go either way. It's a toss-up. Kate Morelda and her liberal cronies have arrogantly dismissed Tom Marelo as having no chance of winning, but these poll numbers show their arrogance will be their downfall," said Robert Strange, a close advisor to Marelo.
Harlyne is a liberal-leaning state, although moderate Conservatives, such as former governor and current senator George Garesby, Sen. Bourret Magiscanti, and Secretary of State Jan Scianden have won statewide elections.
Former Attorney General Julio Emaria, who is more conservative, has also won two terms in the state's top law-enforcement job.
On the whole, however, Nationalists dominate, particularly in the heavily-populated western half of the state, where almost two-thirds of the state's population resides.
One thing is clear after last week's poll. The Nationalist Party cannot dismiss Tom Marelo. And the Conservative Party may want to invest more money in the race than they originally planned.
"We are very much in this to win this. I wouldn't be running if I thought I had no chance of winning. The poll numbers are showing that we are on the cusp of something big. We are in striking distance. And that should make Kate Morelda and her left-wing cronies in Ashford's Landing think twice before they implement their latest, loony policies," a defiant Marelo told reporters Friday at a campaign stop in northern Adams County.
The Morelda campaign responded with skepticism.
"I've ran against Tom Marelo before. I know how he operates. He's cocky. He's very sure of himself. We heard this last time too, that he was going to win and his support was under-reported. But we ended up winning by five points. I know the state of Harlyne. I know the values Harlynians believe in. And I know Tom Marelo does not match up with those values. So I am confident the voters will send me back to Clevey Springs this fall," said Morelda Friday afternoon at a dinner reception in south Ashford's Landing.
In terms of money, Morelda has a significant advantage. She has raised $6.1 million so far for her campaign, and has $4.7 million in cash-on-hand.
Marelo has raised $1.4 million for his campaign, and has also donated an additional $1.6 million of his own money. He has just $998,000 in cash-on-hand.
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