Latest poll has Cozier trailing NAT opponent 49% - 51%
PARKINS, North Ceona -- He's raised more than twice as much money as his opponent, brought in big-name Conservatives to drum up support, and he's shelled out cash for big campaign ad buys. Convention says North Ceona Gov. Tom Cozier should have the advantage in the coming election, especially since he's a CNS incumbent in a Conservative-leaning state.
But Cozier isn't leading. In fact, the most recent poll released by the Parkins Star has Mr. Cozier (pronounced "co-zhure") trailing his NAT opponent, Attorney General John Ennis, 49%-51%, respectively.
Of course, a 51-49 split is hardly a guarantee. It's well within the margin of error of four points.
But the fact that Cozier - who also is chairman of the Governors Board, a prominent position that has elevated his national profile - is behind can only be concerning for his supporters. Especially after more than $4.2 million has been spent on his behalf by his campaign and outside groups.
The good news for Cozier is he has lots of time to turn things around.
The governor hasn't made any significant blunders or errors while in office. He's a highly-disciplined and experienced politician with a strong acumen for the business. And unlike several of his CNS colleagues, Cozier has been reluctant to wade into controversial social issues.
He was forced to deal with the hot-button topic du jour of refugee immigration, like most Grassadellian politicians. The issue is especially significant for Cozier, as the city of Parkins has the second-highest concentration of Muslims in Grassadellia.
But while his colleagues in South Ceona, Biereland and Remmington moved to prevent Syrian refugees from being settled in their states, Mr. Cozier extended a welcome to refugees.
"North Ceonans are kind people. We don't discriminate, we don't shut people out. We invite people in. We're the kind of people who bake cookies and take them across the street when a new neighbor moves into the neighborhood," he told reporters at the time, during a speaking engagement at the Library of Congress.
"Denying people entry into your state based on the color of their skin or the country they're from or their faith is not 'national security,' it's discrimination, and it's unconstitutional, and it's not the North Ceona way," he said.
His position won him praise from Nationalists and pro-immigration groups, including many Muslim organizations, but also earned him scorn from conservative groups, who threatened to recruit a more conservative candidate to challenge him in the primary election because of the issue.
That effort by anti-immigration activists reached a dead-end after several possible challengers declined to run, and the fractured movement, which encompasses various groups, succumbed to infighting.
The main criticism Cozier has faced is being too connected to the establishment, particularly CNS party leadership. As chairman of the Governors Board, Cozier holds a high-ranking position, which has given him a national stage.
Though he's centre-right with a solid conservative record, Mr. Cozier has been careful to tow the party line, which has been largely mainstream.
He took the middle road on refugees, welcoming them to his state but calling for increased background checks. He has consistently called for tax cuts, but opposed a planned government shutdown by staunch conservatives in Mavocke. He is personally opposed to same-sex marriage and gender-neutral bathrooms, but said he would respect the Head Court's decisions on the matters.
His predecessors in the Governors Board chairman position, Christine Gabler (N-Marchenay) and Donna Almone (C-POG), had been criticized for spending too much time out-of-state and paying too little attention to their constituents and issues back home.
Nationalists and some hardline Conservatives criticize Cozier for the same reasons. But he has made a point to spend more time back home in North Ceona, keeping a busy schedule filled with events across the state. When traveling around the country to raise money for other candidates or attend obligations for the Governors Board, he's made a point to fly back to Parkins immediately afterward, choosing not to linger out of town.
By and large, he's done a better job of balancing his responsibilities as chairman of the Governors Board with his obligations as governor of North Ceona.
So why is he trailing his NAT challenger, state Attorney General John Ennis?
A couple reasons. First, the simmering anti-establishment sentiment, which hit a boiling point in 2010 and 2012 and has now cooled off some, remains active, especially among the hard-right and working class voters.
The more substantial reason for Cozier's predicament though, is Ennis' centrist image, particularly on crime.
A well-established moderate, John Ennis is a Nationalist, but he's pretty middle-of-the-road. He has pursued tough sentences for violent offenders, at a time when his own party has embraced inmate rehabilitation and prison reform over punitive sentences.
He has strongly backed law enforcement during his tenure, and has received criticism from his own party for declining to indict six police officers accused of excessive force.
Mr. Ennis' strong, executive, administrator-like persona also plays well with voters, who want to vote for a leader, whereas Mr. Cozier is seen as more diplomatic and collaborative.
The race is nowhere near decided. It remains a dead-heat, and veteran political science professor and prognosticator Dr. Kerry Rudgley, from Dulkalow University, rates the race as a "Toss-Up."
Given Mr. Cozier's elevated status as concurrent chair of the Governors Board and the Conservative Governors Association, the race will likely be expensive.
Cozier has the clear money advantage, with his campaign bank account expected to surpass $10 million soon. The Ennis campaign reported $4.6 million at the last reporting deadline.
PARKINS, North Ceona -- He's raised more than twice as much money as his opponent, brought in big-name Conservatives to drum up support, and he's shelled out cash for big campaign ad buys. Convention says North Ceona Gov. Tom Cozier should have the advantage in the coming election, especially since he's a CNS incumbent in a Conservative-leaning state.
But Cozier isn't leading. In fact, the most recent poll released by the Parkins Star has Mr. Cozier (pronounced "co-zhure") trailing his NAT opponent, Attorney General John Ennis, 49%-51%, respectively.
Of course, a 51-49 split is hardly a guarantee. It's well within the margin of error of four points.
But the fact that Cozier - who also is chairman of the Governors Board, a prominent position that has elevated his national profile - is behind can only be concerning for his supporters. Especially after more than $4.2 million has been spent on his behalf by his campaign and outside groups.
The good news for Cozier is he has lots of time to turn things around.
The governor hasn't made any significant blunders or errors while in office. He's a highly-disciplined and experienced politician with a strong acumen for the business. And unlike several of his CNS colleagues, Cozier has been reluctant to wade into controversial social issues.
He was forced to deal with the hot-button topic du jour of refugee immigration, like most Grassadellian politicians. The issue is especially significant for Cozier, as the city of Parkins has the second-highest concentration of Muslims in Grassadellia.
But while his colleagues in South Ceona, Biereland and Remmington moved to prevent Syrian refugees from being settled in their states, Mr. Cozier extended a welcome to refugees.
"North Ceonans are kind people. We don't discriminate, we don't shut people out. We invite people in. We're the kind of people who bake cookies and take them across the street when a new neighbor moves into the neighborhood," he told reporters at the time, during a speaking engagement at the Library of Congress.
"Denying people entry into your state based on the color of their skin or the country they're from or their faith is not 'national security,' it's discrimination, and it's unconstitutional, and it's not the North Ceona way," he said.
His position won him praise from Nationalists and pro-immigration groups, including many Muslim organizations, but also earned him scorn from conservative groups, who threatened to recruit a more conservative candidate to challenge him in the primary election because of the issue.
That effort by anti-immigration activists reached a dead-end after several possible challengers declined to run, and the fractured movement, which encompasses various groups, succumbed to infighting.
The main criticism Cozier has faced is being too connected to the establishment, particularly CNS party leadership. As chairman of the Governors Board, Cozier holds a high-ranking position, which has given him a national stage.
Though he's centre-right with a solid conservative record, Mr. Cozier has been careful to tow the party line, which has been largely mainstream.
He took the middle road on refugees, welcoming them to his state but calling for increased background checks. He has consistently called for tax cuts, but opposed a planned government shutdown by staunch conservatives in Mavocke. He is personally opposed to same-sex marriage and gender-neutral bathrooms, but said he would respect the Head Court's decisions on the matters.
His predecessors in the Governors Board chairman position, Christine Gabler (N-Marchenay) and Donna Almone (C-POG), had been criticized for spending too much time out-of-state and paying too little attention to their constituents and issues back home.
Nationalists and some hardline Conservatives criticize Cozier for the same reasons. But he has made a point to spend more time back home in North Ceona, keeping a busy schedule filled with events across the state. When traveling around the country to raise money for other candidates or attend obligations for the Governors Board, he's made a point to fly back to Parkins immediately afterward, choosing not to linger out of town.
By and large, he's done a better job of balancing his responsibilities as chairman of the Governors Board with his obligations as governor of North Ceona.
So why is he trailing his NAT challenger, state Attorney General John Ennis?
A couple reasons. First, the simmering anti-establishment sentiment, which hit a boiling point in 2010 and 2012 and has now cooled off some, remains active, especially among the hard-right and working class voters.
The more substantial reason for Cozier's predicament though, is Ennis' centrist image, particularly on crime.
A well-established moderate, John Ennis is a Nationalist, but he's pretty middle-of-the-road. He has pursued tough sentences for violent offenders, at a time when his own party has embraced inmate rehabilitation and prison reform over punitive sentences.
He has strongly backed law enforcement during his tenure, and has received criticism from his own party for declining to indict six police officers accused of excessive force.
Mr. Ennis' strong, executive, administrator-like persona also plays well with voters, who want to vote for a leader, whereas Mr. Cozier is seen as more diplomatic and collaborative.
The race is nowhere near decided. It remains a dead-heat, and veteran political science professor and prognosticator Dr. Kerry Rudgley, from Dulkalow University, rates the race as a "Toss-Up."
Given Mr. Cozier's elevated status as concurrent chair of the Governors Board and the Conservative Governors Association, the race will likely be expensive.
Cozier has the clear money advantage, with his campaign bank account expected to surpass $10 million soon. The Ennis campaign reported $4.6 million at the last reporting deadline.
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