South Ceona has never reelected a governor since statehood. It's had a series of one-term governors, alternating between both political parties.
Incumbent Gov. Mike Lembcke (C) appears to be headed for a similar fate as his predecessors, according to new polling from Opinion Research.
In hypothetical match-ups with his two NAT opponents, Lembcke is trailing.
He trails badly against former NAT Gov. Scott Bannich, 44 to 54 percent, respectively.
Lembcke fares somewhat better against former Attorney General Patty Volston (N). She leads him 51 to 48 percent, respectively.
It's bad news for Conservatives, who were hoping to break the state's "governors curse" this year.
Lembcke, a former federal senator and prosecutor, was first elected back in 2022, when he beat then-Governor Brett Ratenzy (N) 51 to 48 percent.
But a lackluster job market, an increasingly strained housing market due to large population growth, and poor communication from the governor's office have made Lembcke vulnerable.
Critics -- even fellow Conservatives -- say Lembcke is not visible enough in the state. He makes far less public appearances than previous governors or governors from neighboring states. And his gruff, brusk personality is off-putting, some say.
"I think Mike Lembcke's greatest weakness is Mike Lembcke," said state Sen. Neal Dorion (C-Averon). "If he would get out and see the people more, do more press conferences, more ribbon cuttings, get his face out there more...and if he would joke around a little more and show a relaxed side, I think people could identify with him more."
Lembcke has been criticized for being uptight and dour.
"He rarely smiles, only when he screws the NAT over. He rarely interacts with the public. He's not a governor of the people," NAT state Rep. Anna Olshean (Fairfield Inner) told the GBC.
The governor's office has pushed back.
"Governor Lembcke is not a happy-go-lucky guy. He is a serious leader, he is a tough leader. He doesn't joke around a lot because that's not his personality. He's not a golden retriever, he's a lion," said the governor's press secretary Alaina Kempson. "If people want a flowery governor who just cuts ribbons and does photo ops but doesn't actually do anything important, then they should elect a 'feel good' Nationalist who will give everyone what they want and raise everyone's taxes."
Bannich, who served as the state's inaugural governor from 2013 to 2015, was similarly criticized at the time for being too stiff and unapproachable.
But since he left office, Bannich has repaired his public image. A dentist by trade, the former governor returned to his dental practice in east Fairfield, working with low-income patients who can't afford dental care.
He's spoken out on labor issues, on affordability, and has championed populist policies that have resonated with the working class and with average South Ceonans.
Lembcke, on the other hand, has been a staunch Conservative champion of right-wing policies. He's adopted a tough-on-crime approach, as well as a hardline pro-business stance, rolling back many of the pro-worker policies previous NAT governors enacted.
"This governor is anti-worker, anti-environment, and anti-human rights," said Leo Nolan, director of the South Ceona Human Rights Coalition.
"Mike Lembcke has expanded logging in our forests, he's expanded the use of carbon-producing energy, he's cracked down on protesters who are lawfully exercising their rights, and he has empowered big business at the expense of average South Ceonans," added Nolan.
While Lembcke's recent poll numbers are lackluster, the CNS is rushing to defend his record.
"Mike Lembcke may not be the most smiley, photogenic governor out there. He's maybe not warm and fuzzy. But he is right on policy. He supports law enforcement. He supports business. He supports our rural communities. He's focused on the issues South Ceonans care about," said Rich Negley, a spokesman for the Conservative Governors Association (CGA).
While Nationalists may have the edge in the polls right now, they face a difficult primary between two former popular statewide officials, Bannich and Volston.
National and state party leaders spent months trying to talk Volston out of running for governor, hoping to avoid a nasty intra-party battle. But the former attorney general pushed ahead.
"I love Scott. I think he's a great guy and he's done a lot of great things for our state. But I still believe I'm the best person to take on Mike Lembcke. So I'm not leaving the race," said Volston in a recent press conference at her home in rural Englehardt County.
She continued: "My whole life I've been pushed around and told what to do because I'm a woman in a man's world (politics). But I have never backed down and I'm not going to back down this time either. I will let the good voters of South Ceona, specifically the NAT voters, decide who they want to represent our party heading into the 2026 election."
Bannich responded, telling a Fairfield radio host that he "respects" Volston, and he wouldn't ask her to step out of the race.
"I know some people pressured her to drop out. I never did and I never would do that. I'm not afraid of some healthy competition, and I think both Patty and I have good records to run on. We've both championed pragmatic policies during our careers. If she wins, I think she'll do a good job and I think she'll beat Mike Lembcke. If I win, I know I'll beat Mike Lembcke and I know I'll do a good job. So, either way, I'm not worried about the outcome of this primary election," said Bannich.
If Bannich wins the primary and beats Lembcke, the former will become the first governor in state history to be reelected, albeit to a non-consecutive term.
If Volston wins the NAT's backing and defeats Lembcke, she will become the state's first female governor.
Right now, Dr. Kerry Rudgley from Dulkalow University ranks the South Ceona governor's race as a "toss-up." However, the new poll results may push the race into the "Leans NAT" column.
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