GOLDCHRIS, Har. -- Defying all expectations, hard-line Conservative gubernatorial candidate and businessman Tom Marelo won a major upset against an establishment Conservative opponent.
Originally, five CNS candidates were vying for the Conservative party's nomination. One, H-Tel CEO Rich Tuller, dropped out and filed to run for lieutenant governor instead.
Former Attorney General Julia Giorchani and current Assemblyman Steve Frenitch both dropped out just days before the primary election.
Frenitch opted to run for attorney general instead, while Giorchani did not give a reason for her departure from the race and didn't file to run for another office.
That left Marelo and Assemblyman Frank Kerenbury, the establishment-backed and favorite candidate of party leadership.
Kerenbury is decidedly more moderate than Marelo, with the former embracing bipartisanship and moderate positions on social issues.
Marelo is considerably more conservative on fiscal and social policies, and has ruthlessly attacked Nationalists politicians.
The outspoken millionaire businessman, who is a staunch Evangelical Christian, has received strong support from his home base in Adams County, the state's most conservative county.
Marelo's support has spread beyond Adams County, though, including to all of eastern Harlyne and even to the heavily-populated western half of the state.
Indeed, it was an unexpected wellspring of support for Marelo in Scandinaugh County, the state's second-most-populous, that helped pushed Marelo past the finish line.
Kerenbury, who hails from Scandinaugh County, ended up losing his home county narrowly, with Marelo enjoying a strong lead among working-class and blue-collar voters.
Kerenbury received more support from elderly and higher-educated voters.
In the end, the race was exceedingly close. Kerenbury led by a sliver of the vote in the first count. But as additional overseas and military ballots trickled in, Marelo pulled ahead.
However, his win was exceedingly marginal, beating Kerenbury by less than 2,000 votes out of more than 240,000 votes cast.
A win for Marelo is a victory for hard-line and right-wing Conservatives, and a blow to party leadership, who tried to clear a path for Kerenbury.
Party elders are concerned about Marelo's nomination primarily because they believe he is too conservative to win in the fall election.
"Harlyne is a liberal state. We are a left-leaning state. We can't win with a right-wing candidate here," Josh Jarvis, a Conservative political consultant from Harlyne, told the NPF.
Additionally, Marelo previously ran unsuccessfully for governor back in 2020, losing to NAT Gov. Kate Morelda by a 52%-46% margin.
"How is this year going to be any different than 2020 when Tom Marelo lost back then? I'm not convinced he can beat Kate Morelda," Jarvis added.
Marelo brushes off concerns about electability.
"We came fairly close to winning last time around. And now voters have had almost four years of Kate Morelda's 'leadership.' People are hungry for change. They're yearning for common sense policies. They're tired of seeing homeless people on every street corner. They're tired of 'catch and release' policies with criminals who commit crimes. People are tired of being taxed out of their cars and their homes. The climate and the mood are very different this time around, and we intend to capitalize on that," Marelo told The Harlyne Sun newspaper in a sit-down interview yesterday.
Perhaps a challenge equally as daunting as defeating Kate Morelda in the fall will be the process of healing intra-party rifts between the pro-Marelo and pro-Kerenbury factions of the CNS, something Marelo acknowledged.
"I know this was a tough-fought primary election. I know Assemblyman Kerenbury is a good person and has served our state for many years. I appreciate his service and his ideas. And I hope he partners with me to win in November," said Marelo.
Kerenbury briefly toyed with changing his party registration to "Independent," which would allow him to continue his campaign for governor as an Independent candidate.
However, polls on a hypothetical Morelda-Marelo-Kerenbury, three-way race showed Morelda leading overwhelmingly, with Conservatives splitting the vote.
The adverse poll numbers convinced Kerenbury to accept defeat. He subsequently endorsed Marelo.
"It is disappointing to being standing here not as a winner but conceding to another candidate. That's not the outcome we hoped for, it's not the outcome I hoped for. But the voters have spoken, and they, ever so narrowly, chose Tom Marelo's vision for our state over my vision. And I have to respect that," Kerenbury told a local TV station Friday in Harlynee.
"This [defeat] doesn't change my fidelity to the party. I am still a loyal Conservative. I still support the party and still want our party to win in November. I will be supporting Tom Marelo in the fall. We need a change, we need new leadership in Clevey Springs. So this contested primary election doesn't change that."
Despite Marelo's endorsement, concerns persist among the Conservative party's leadership. Many fear moderate Conservative voters, who have long been the backbone of the party, may either switch their votes to Morelda in the fall election, or they may abstain and not vote at all. Either scenario would hurt Marelo's chances of taking the governorship.
Still, others point to Marelo's surprising win, and an upsurge in support he received in Scandinaugh, Herell, Bourneham and Saoca counties. They also look to states like Ansleigha, where Conservatives swept statewide elections back in 2020 in a surprising upset result.
"Who's to say Harlyne won't be the next Ansleigha," said Rick Thornton, deputy campaign manager for the Marelo campaign. "Some of the best results for Conservatives are coming out of NAT-leaning states."
Indeed, polls show Marelo either tied with or narrowly trailing Morelda in a fall match-up.
"This race is going to be much closer than national pundits and so-called 'experts' say it will be," said Marelo.
The Morelda campaign is taking anything for granted, said Vanessa Kemp, spokesperson for the Morelda campaign.
"Gov. Morelda will continue to outline and share her vision for Harlyne with the voters. Gov. Morelda believes her pro-climate, pro-environment, pro-family, pro-women and pro-civil rights policies will resonate with Harlynians. Her positions are in stark contrast to the radical anti-woman, anti-abortion, anti-climate policies of Tom Marelo. And Gov. Morelda looks forward to election day, so Harlynians can decide for themselves what direction they want our state to go for the next four years," said Kemp.
***Election Results -- Harlyne Conservative Primary for Governor -- Unofficial Results***
| Candidates: | Votes: | Percent: | Counties Won: |
| Tom Marelo | 122,203 | 50.75% | 6 |
| Frank Kerenbury | 118,578 | 49.25% | 5 |
| Total Votes: | |||
| 240,781 | |||
| Turnout: | |||
| 17.70% |
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