PARKINS, N. Ceona -- As he gears up for his reelection bid, North Ceona Gov. Ty Jaimeson is in a strong position, according to new polling.
Jaimeson, first elected in 2020, leads all of his eight NAT challengers, most by a comfortable margin, though a few do come close to running even with him.
However, that same set of polling data found that while Jaimeson does well with independent voters and even pulls some moderate NAT voters, he is struggling with the state's far-right Conservative voters, who are disillusioned with his more centrist policies and positions.
The trend is most notable in the state's most conservative counties, which cover a swath of rural desert terrain, miles way from the more diverse metro areas of Parkins, Lexerna or Berwick.
In those jurisdictions, many right-wing voters simply can't stomach voting for Jaimeson, who they feel is a "faux Conservative," that is, too liberal for the Conservative Party.
Still, despite losing some of the most ardent Conservative voters, Jaimeson is well-positioned heading into the November 2024 election. He is not facing any fellow Conservative challengers in the primary election, and most of his NAT opponents are little-known and first-time candidates for statewide office.
Sen. Elizabeth Graham, who narrowly lost to Jaimeson back in 2024, has declined to run again this year, as has former state Attorney General John Ennis.
Senators Anthony Campanelli (N) and Wendy MacDonald (N) also declined to challenge Jaimeson, and former Sen. Alexis Stotter also ruled out a run.
That's left eight NAT candidates who are relatively unknown. The most prominent name in the race so far is state Senate Minority Leader Tom Muddleford, who previously ran for governor in 2020 but lost to Graham and Ennis in the primary. Muddleford came in third place in that contest.
Muddleford is the best-known candidate on the NAT side, yet his polling numbers are not as favorable as some of his opponents. His strong personality and his history of refusing to compromise with fellow state legislators are a turn-off to many voters, polling shows.
The latest Jaimeson-Muddleford poll conducted in early January found Muddleford trailing the incumbent governor by seven points (46% - 53%).
So far, the NAT's best-polling candidate is Forward Industries CEO Susie Forzsak (pronounced "For-Zack").
Forward Industries is an aeronautics company that makes parts for large commercial aircraft. Forzsak, who lives in the far eastern Parkins suburbs of affluent Mantionne County, has never ran for office before, and is little-known outside of state NAT Party circles.
However, Forzsak has already been running television ads statewide promoting her candidacy and her friendship with some of the state's top NAT leaders, including Graham and MacDonald.
Forzsak has made the economy and bringing living-wage jobs to North Ceona a central part of her campaign, while other candidates in the race have made labor and race relations their central themes.
In a head-to-head match up, Forzsak trails Jaimeson by just two points, according to a poll from the North Ceonan newspaper.
Also a leading contender against Jaimeson is Lexerna businessman John Thurgood, a self-made millionaire who founded and runs his own logistics company. Thurgood trails Jaimeson by a similar margin, according to the polls.
State Sen. Tom Denton, of north-central Parkins, is also a leading candidate, though his polling numbers fall far shorter against Jaimeson (45% - 53%).
Fellow State Sen. Katie Pollock of south Parkins comes closer to Jaimeson (48% - 51%), while businessman Blair Elliott of Lexerna also comes within shouting distance (47% - 52%).
Arab-Grassadellian community organizer and journalist Sajid Roushan garners 46% to Jaimeson's 53%, respectively, while State Sen. Lisa Campion of Cape Goodwin has the lowest numbers against Jaimeson, 45% - 54%, respectively.
The numbers show the race is far from a clinch for Jaimeson. However, the popular, young governor will be difficult for Nationalists to unseat.
In his first term, he's made education, business, low taxes, and the environment chief areas of focus for his administration. He's also acutely followed crime and homelessness in the Parkins metro area, which has seen a spike in crime and homeless activity in recent years.
Another advantage for Jaimeson is his side job of running the Conservative Party's nationwide gubernatorial campaign strategies. As the chair of CGA, he is personally responsible for recruiting top-notch CNS candidates for governor in all 24 states, and that position gives him easy access to wealthy donors and party elites.
Jaimeson is sitting on a $4.6 million campaign bank account, at the moment. His NAT challengers are starting from virtually ground zero, in terms of fundraising.
But North Ceona is a fickle state, often delivering narrow wins for both parties. Previously firmly in the Conservative Party's column, the state, in recent years, has become a battleground, with both parties holding nearly equal strength.
The state continues to lean to the CNS, but many moderate and independent voters who break for both parties have the ability to sway elections into the NAT's favor. While the NAT has never won a governor's race in North Ceona, three of the state's current four federal senators are from the NAT.
And even an unsuccessful run against Jaimeson could still be helpful for aspiring NAT candidates.
A loss in 2024 could still provide much-needed name recognition and donor networking, which could help a losing candidate rebuild and grow in strength for a future run for office.
It's a race that will be worth watching for, analysts say. Longtime veteran pollster Dr. Kerry Rudgely from Dulkalow University currently rates the race as a CNS-favored, which means the race is favoring the CNS but could become more competitive with the right NAT candidate.
In the NAT primary race, Muddleford continues to lead the field, although with eight candidates in the mix, several of whom are great fundraisers, the NAT nomination is far from certain.
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