WILLIAMSTOWN, Tri. -- A new poll released Monday shows bad news for Trinton Sen. Dorothy Grischaltz as she gears up for re-election in 2024.
The poll, conducted by the Golden Shore Tribune newspaper in conjunction with the University of Trinton, finds Grischaltz trailing her Conservative opponent, former fighter pilot Mack Anderson.
In the poll, Anderson receives nearly 52% of support, while Grischaltz, a self-proclaimed socialist, receives only 47.5 percent, respectively.
Grischaltz, a former progressive Liberal Democrat turned Nationalist, served decades in the National Assembly before winning her Senate seat in 2018. That year, she beat Conservative Kelsey Frascanio by a comfortable 54%-41% margin.
This time around, Anderson is the Conservative frontrunner. Unlike Trinton's open governor's race, where no incumbent is running and dozens of candidates have expressed interest in running, other Conservative candidates have been reticent to challenge Grischaltz, who has long been viewed as unbeatable.
This new poll pours cold water on that theory of untouchability.
Anderson is a young, up-and-coming member of the Conservative party. A former fighter pilot and veteran of the Afghanistan War, he is popular among CNS voters and scores well among independent voters too.
Anderson previously ran for the Senate back in 2020, falling short of beating NAT incumbent Tim Blakewell. In that race, Anderson took 46% to Blakewell's 51%, respectively.
But both Conservative and Nationalist party insiders say Grischaltz, despite her reputation as being unbeatable, is actually more vulnerable to defeat.
As a far-left politician, she has fared well in historically left-leaning Trinton over the decades. However, at 74 years old, her age is a turn off to some voters. And Grischaltz's extreme far-left positions on certain issues like taxes, government spending, and the environment make her less palatable to many moderate or left-leaning but centrist voters.
Anderson, meanwhile, pulls strong support from the Conservative party base. At the same time, he is moderate on many divisive issues, which allows him to pull support from independent and centrist historically NAT voters.
He's done his best to dodge thorny social issues like abortion and transgender rights. When asked in the past, Anderson has given vague, general answers, saying he supports both the rights of women and young transgender students, but also the rights of fathers, unborn children, and parents of transgender children.
His more moderate stances and unclear answers have allowed him to sidestep many of the hot-button issues that have dogged other Conservative candidates.
It also helps that Anderson is much less extreme than previous Conservative candidates in Trinton, like Randy Kalamaza or Eddie Cazzini, who both previously ran for Senate.
Still, it's more than a year before next year's election, and supporters of Grischaltz say the senator has delivered for Trintonians.
"Dorothy has brought much-needed money to our state, she has fought to protect the environment, she has been staunchly anti-war. When I hear people say she is too 'far-left,' I laugh, because Trinton is a blue state. Trintonians are liberal, and she is very much in the liberal mainstream," says Sean Turnbull, an NAT political consultant who has worked with Grischaltz for more than 20 years.
Conservatives sense an opportunity, though.
The state CNS party has had multiple failures back-to-back in recent elections. Currently, the Conservative party only holds one of Trinton's four federal Senate seats. And the party holds no state level offices.
With the 2024 election looming, the Conservative party is seeking to reverse their fortunes. With an open governor's race, the party is hoping to capture the governor's mansion for the first time since statehood. And they're looking to re-take the lieutenant governorship and secretary of state position they previously held.
The party would also like to increase its share of Trinton's National Assembly seats.
It will be a tall order for a state party that has seen clashes between the more moderate faction of the party, which includes the party's patriarch Sen. George Reedsworth, and the more right-wing faction, which includes many of the unsuccessful Conservative candidates whom have ran in the past.
Mack Anderson falls somewhere in between those two factions, or perhaps in an overlapping circle that encompasses both groups.
Supporters say he is conservative enough to satisfy the right-wing base, but also moderate enough to appeal to independent and even disaffected NAT voters.
The 43-year-old is also a prolific fundraiser. He currently has $1.8 million in the bank already, even before he's officially announced his candidacy.
Grischaltz, with strong support from the left-wing, is also likely to raise a lot of money. She's popular not just among her base in Trinton but also nationally, as one of the most progressive senators to date. She will likely use that national popularity as leverage to gain donations.
However, her pledge to avoid corporate campaign donations may severely limit her fundraising abilities, if she adheres to her promise.
For now, the race is worth watching, says Dr. Kerry Rudgley, chair of Dulkalow University's School of Government.
He's currently rating the race as a 'toss-up.'
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