MAINE CITY, Ara. -- The 2020 elections are shaping up to bring many competitive races.
But Armana Governor Leandra Kemmes, a first-term Nationalist, is likely to coast to re-election, according to a recent series of opinion polls.
Kemmes, a moderate Nationalist, remains popular in the Coalwood state.
She has high approval from Nationalists, Independents, and even many Conservatives.
Kemmes has steered away from contentious social issues and has focused on bread-and-butter issues like the economy, transportation and coastal erosion mitigation.
Under her leadership, the state's economy has grown, primarily in the southern half, where three-quarters of the state's population resides.
And the governor has avoided major missteps and gaffes.
Her strong popularity has discouraged prominent Conservatives from challenging her in the 2020 election.
Former Assemblyman Dave Charm, who ran against Kemmes in 2016, has ruled out a rematch.
Former Senator Dana Glow, who narrowly lost his Senate seat in 2016, has also passed on a bid.
Only three long-shot Conservative candidates have expressed interest in challenging Kemmes.
Mike Holt, who narrowly lost a Senate race in 2016 to Nationalist Emily Burkhart, is said to be considering a run.
Tom Ungerhart, mayor of Otter Creek, a suburb of Mavocke, is also said to have his eye on the governorship.
And finally, businessman Bob Hefner of Westhorpe is interested.
But polls conducted last week for the Conservative Party show that Kemmes would trounce all three contenders.
Kemmes would crush Holt 57-39 percent. Ungerhart performs better against Kemmes but still comes far short; she would defeat him 52-45 percent.
Polling on Hefner is not done yet, but an earlier poll from November found more than 80% of respondents had never heard of Hefner.
In short, no Conservative candidate comes close to beating Kemmes in polls.
Ungerhart has the best shot, but still has a ways to go.
The moderate mayor is well-known in the Mavocke area but struggles with name recognition in the rest of the state.
His more centrist views appeal to independents, but Leandra Kemmes is also a centrist. The poll finds independent voters breaking even for both candidates.
There is one upside for the Conservatives, however.
The party commissioned a poll on the 2020 Senate race. Incumbent Serap Figaori (N) is up for re-election, and in a hypothetical match up against Conservative Andy Fulbright, Figaori trails 46% to 50% for Fulbright.
Fulbright is a political newcomer and the son of former senator Dale Fulbright.
He has yet to announce his candidacy, but the positive polling results are said to have convinced the younger Fulbright he can win against a popular but divisive NAT incumbent.
Privately, however, top CNS party leaders are urging the party to write off Armana and invest resources in other states where they have a better chance of winning.
"There is no way we can beat Leandra Kemmes," said one top party strategist, who asked for anonymity because discussing the party's internal strategy might jeopardize business, told GNN.
"Any Conservative who thinks they can win against Leandra Kemmes is either not very smart or smoking something," the strategist added.
Kemmes' campaign declined to comment for this article, but state NAT party leaders expressed strong confidence.
"We are fortunate to have an immensely popular governor, Leandra Kemmes, and we're confident that Senator Serap Figaori will also win re-election," said Vanita Bynum, deputy director of the state NAT party.
A spokesman for Figaori said the progressive senator, who was first elected on a strong left-wing wave, will continue to put progressive values first.
"Senator Figaori is not going to change his positions or moderate his views just to win an election. He is who he is and he will stand up for the progressive values Armanans care about," said spokesman Garrity Hanton.
But Armana Governor Leandra Kemmes, a first-term Nationalist, is likely to coast to re-election, according to a recent series of opinion polls.
Kemmes, a moderate Nationalist, remains popular in the Coalwood state.
She has high approval from Nationalists, Independents, and even many Conservatives.
Kemmes has steered away from contentious social issues and has focused on bread-and-butter issues like the economy, transportation and coastal erosion mitigation.
Under her leadership, the state's economy has grown, primarily in the southern half, where three-quarters of the state's population resides.
And the governor has avoided major missteps and gaffes.
Her strong popularity has discouraged prominent Conservatives from challenging her in the 2020 election.
Former Assemblyman Dave Charm, who ran against Kemmes in 2016, has ruled out a rematch.
Former Senator Dana Glow, who narrowly lost his Senate seat in 2016, has also passed on a bid.
Only three long-shot Conservative candidates have expressed interest in challenging Kemmes.
Mike Holt, who narrowly lost a Senate race in 2016 to Nationalist Emily Burkhart, is said to be considering a run.
Tom Ungerhart, mayor of Otter Creek, a suburb of Mavocke, is also said to have his eye on the governorship.
And finally, businessman Bob Hefner of Westhorpe is interested.
But polls conducted last week for the Conservative Party show that Kemmes would trounce all three contenders.
Kemmes would crush Holt 57-39 percent. Ungerhart performs better against Kemmes but still comes far short; she would defeat him 52-45 percent.
Polling on Hefner is not done yet, but an earlier poll from November found more than 80% of respondents had never heard of Hefner.
In short, no Conservative candidate comes close to beating Kemmes in polls.
Ungerhart has the best shot, but still has a ways to go.
The moderate mayor is well-known in the Mavocke area but struggles with name recognition in the rest of the state.
His more centrist views appeal to independents, but Leandra Kemmes is also a centrist. The poll finds independent voters breaking even for both candidates.
There is one upside for the Conservatives, however.
The party commissioned a poll on the 2020 Senate race. Incumbent Serap Figaori (N) is up for re-election, and in a hypothetical match up against Conservative Andy Fulbright, Figaori trails 46% to 50% for Fulbright.
Fulbright is a political newcomer and the son of former senator Dale Fulbright.
He has yet to announce his candidacy, but the positive polling results are said to have convinced the younger Fulbright he can win against a popular but divisive NAT incumbent.
Privately, however, top CNS party leaders are urging the party to write off Armana and invest resources in other states where they have a better chance of winning.
"There is no way we can beat Leandra Kemmes," said one top party strategist, who asked for anonymity because discussing the party's internal strategy might jeopardize business, told GNN.
"Any Conservative who thinks they can win against Leandra Kemmes is either not very smart or smoking something," the strategist added.
Kemmes' campaign declined to comment for this article, but state NAT party leaders expressed strong confidence.
"We are fortunate to have an immensely popular governor, Leandra Kemmes, and we're confident that Senator Serap Figaori will also win re-election," said Vanita Bynum, deputy director of the state NAT party.
A spokesman for Figaori said the progressive senator, who was first elected on a strong left-wing wave, will continue to put progressive values first.
"Senator Figaori is not going to change his positions or moderate his views just to win an election. He is who he is and he will stand up for the progressive values Armanans care about," said spokesman Garrity Hanton.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment