Democratic-Reformist candidate will siphon vote from Conservative, experts say
REMMINGTON CITY, Remm. – It should be an easy win for the Conservative party. A popular Conservative candidate running for a vacant Senate seat in perhaps the most conservative state in the country, facing a little-known NAT opponent.
When Senator Jared Lanman was elected governor in the 2016 general election during the middle of his Senate term, CNS leaders figured a special election to determine his replacement in the Senate would be a cake-walk for the Conservatives. But that was before Democratic-Reformist businessman Jude Weimer joined the race, turning a head-to-head match-up between the two major parties into an unpredictable three-way race.
The special election is less than two weeks away, and what should be an easy win for Conservatives is quickly turning into a panic attack.
Assemblywoman Shaylene McCullough, who represents the Remmington City-based electorate of Benham, is the Conservative torch-bearer. She beat back the better-known but more moderate Pierce Paeley, a former secretary of state, in the primary election.
On the NAT side, state Representative Melayna Lewis of Redmand clinched her party’s nomination, defeating three-time unsuccessful Senate candidate and former Iraq War veteran James Kensen of Winston.
Popular former Senator Matt Hoffbourn considered entering the race but declined, despite entreaties from top NAT officials.
With two women heading the two parties’ tickets, it appeared Remmington was poised to elect its first female senator in history. But at the last second before the filing deadline, Jude Weimer, a prominent businessman in Remmington City’s growing telecom industry, threw his hat into the ring.
Weimer has ran before for the Senate before, also as a Democratic-Reformist. In 2010, he narrowly lost another three-way race between he, then-incumbent James Owen-Wilson (N) and Conservative Mark Eisinger.
Weimer took 32% of the vote, impressive for a novice, third-party candidate, but Eisinger and Owen-Wilson advanced to the run-off election, where Eisinger ultimately prevailed.
So seven years later, Mr. Weimer finds himself back in politics. He passed on subsequent runs for the Senate, and he considered a run for governor in 2012 and 2016 but sat out each. Now is the right time for a third-party candidate, he told the Remmington Star.
“Right now in the Federal Senate, you have both parties with almost the same number of Senators. They’re evenly split. You’ve got about 45 career politicians in the Conservative party, and 45 career politicians in the Nationalist party. The people are yearning for someone who is not a career politician, not beholden to the two political parties, not beholden to special interest groups,” Mr. Weimer said, analyzing the political climate.
“I’m someone who has proven my independence time and time again, and I will stand up for the people of Remmington as an independent voice. I won’t be beholden to Jon Ralston (Senate Conservative leader) or Debbie Madronas (Senate NAT leader). I will answer to the people of Remmington and only the people of Remmington,” he said.
Conservatives don’t see it the same way, of course.
The McCullough campaign says Weimer, who used to be a Conservative before switching to the DR party, will siphon votes from voters who would otherwise vote for her.
“With Jude Weimer running, the conservative majority will split the vote. Some conservative voters will for Shaylene, some will vote for Weimer and Melayna Lewis will come out on top with the most votes,” said a McCullough campaign surrogate, who requested anonymity discussing the campaign’s concerns.
A source with the Conservative Senate Campaign Committee, the CNS campaign arm that funds candidates for the Senate, told the political blogger Zach Andrieu that the party is bracing for a loss in Remmington.
“A few months ago, we thought Jared Lanman’s seat would firmly stay in the Conservative column. Now, we’ll be lucky if we can hang on to it,” said the source, who also requested anonymity discussing the inner-conversations of the party leadership.
The panic among Conservatives may be premature, however.
Remmington state law requires a candidate to attain 50% plus one of the vote in order to be elected.
Most polls show Melayna Lewis leading the three-way race with roughly 40%, followed by McCullough with 35%-38%, and Weimer trailing with about 25 percent.
If those predictions hold true, and Weimer finishes last while Lewis wins a plurality but falls short of a majority, Ms. Lewis and Ms. McCullough would advance to a run-off race between the two of them.
REMMINGTON CITY, Remm. – It should be an easy win for the Conservative party. A popular Conservative candidate running for a vacant Senate seat in perhaps the most conservative state in the country, facing a little-known NAT opponent.
When Senator Jared Lanman was elected governor in the 2016 general election during the middle of his Senate term, CNS leaders figured a special election to determine his replacement in the Senate would be a cake-walk for the Conservatives. But that was before Democratic-Reformist businessman Jude Weimer joined the race, turning a head-to-head match-up between the two major parties into an unpredictable three-way race.
The special election is less than two weeks away, and what should be an easy win for Conservatives is quickly turning into a panic attack.
Assemblywoman Shaylene McCullough, who represents the Remmington City-based electorate of Benham, is the Conservative torch-bearer. She beat back the better-known but more moderate Pierce Paeley, a former secretary of state, in the primary election.
On the NAT side, state Representative Melayna Lewis of Redmand clinched her party’s nomination, defeating three-time unsuccessful Senate candidate and former Iraq War veteran James Kensen of Winston.
Popular former Senator Matt Hoffbourn considered entering the race but declined, despite entreaties from top NAT officials.
With two women heading the two parties’ tickets, it appeared Remmington was poised to elect its first female senator in history. But at the last second before the filing deadline, Jude Weimer, a prominent businessman in Remmington City’s growing telecom industry, threw his hat into the ring.
Weimer has ran before for the Senate before, also as a Democratic-Reformist. In 2010, he narrowly lost another three-way race between he, then-incumbent James Owen-Wilson (N) and Conservative Mark Eisinger.
Weimer took 32% of the vote, impressive for a novice, third-party candidate, but Eisinger and Owen-Wilson advanced to the run-off election, where Eisinger ultimately prevailed.
So seven years later, Mr. Weimer finds himself back in politics. He passed on subsequent runs for the Senate, and he considered a run for governor in 2012 and 2016 but sat out each. Now is the right time for a third-party candidate, he told the Remmington Star.
“Right now in the Federal Senate, you have both parties with almost the same number of Senators. They’re evenly split. You’ve got about 45 career politicians in the Conservative party, and 45 career politicians in the Nationalist party. The people are yearning for someone who is not a career politician, not beholden to the two political parties, not beholden to special interest groups,” Mr. Weimer said, analyzing the political climate.
“I’m someone who has proven my independence time and time again, and I will stand up for the people of Remmington as an independent voice. I won’t be beholden to Jon Ralston (Senate Conservative leader) or Debbie Madronas (Senate NAT leader). I will answer to the people of Remmington and only the people of Remmington,” he said.
Conservatives don’t see it the same way, of course.
The McCullough campaign says Weimer, who used to be a Conservative before switching to the DR party, will siphon votes from voters who would otherwise vote for her.
“With Jude Weimer running, the conservative majority will split the vote. Some conservative voters will for Shaylene, some will vote for Weimer and Melayna Lewis will come out on top with the most votes,” said a McCullough campaign surrogate, who requested anonymity discussing the campaign’s concerns.
A source with the Conservative Senate Campaign Committee, the CNS campaign arm that funds candidates for the Senate, told the political blogger Zach Andrieu that the party is bracing for a loss in Remmington.
“A few months ago, we thought Jared Lanman’s seat would firmly stay in the Conservative column. Now, we’ll be lucky if we can hang on to it,” said the source, who also requested anonymity discussing the inner-conversations of the party leadership.
The panic among Conservatives may be premature, however.
Remmington state law requires a candidate to attain 50% plus one of the vote in order to be elected.
Most polls show Melayna Lewis leading the three-way race with roughly 40%, followed by McCullough with 35%-38%, and Weimer trailing with about 25 percent.
If those predictions hold true, and Weimer finishes last while Lewis wins a plurality but falls short of a majority, Ms. Lewis and Ms. McCullough would advance to a run-off race between the two of them.
With Weimer in the race, it could essentially just be adding
a second round to the voting process. Whittling down from three candidates to
two.
In fact, the most recent poll numbers from the race, which
is garnering nation-wide attention as the two parties fight for a majority in
the Federal Senate, show Lewis leading, followed closely behind by McCullough,
and Weimer in a distant third.
The poll, commissioned by the Remmington-based Ace &
Watkins polling firm, shows Lewis taking 41%, McCullough with 38% and Weimer
with 21%, respectively. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.
The Lewis campaign
declined to comment for this story, but campaign spokesman Josh Hemming did
tell Grassadellian Public Radio (GPR) that Jude Weimer’s entry into the race “presented
new dynamics,” but he insisted Ms. Lewis is glad to have a second opponent,
believing “the more voices being heard in the debate, the better quality of a discussion
we will have,” said Mr. Hemming.
Both parties have spent millions on the race, and Mr. Weimer
has a vast personal fortune he can tap for campaign funds.
But Remmington’s media markets are relatively cheap for
advertising, and while it will be an expensive race, the final price tag will
fall far shorter than expensive races during the general election 2016 season.
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