Still no clear front-runner in Ansleigha primary race

Only one of eight candidates has dropped out

KOEURN, Ansleigha – It’s the primary race everyone is watching this election cycle – seven candidates, no clear front-runner, and a skirmish between the liberal and moderate wings of the centre-left Nationalist Party.

The race for the NAT nomination for governor is vastly different from the past two gubernatorial elections in Ansleigha in 2010 and 2012, when Nationalist Elliott Androlov, a young, up-and-coming leader in the NAT, ran unopposed in each contest.

Androlov lost both the 2010 special election and the 2012 rematch to Conservative Dale Lindstrom, at the time, the Gowlinson County district attorney.

Now working in the private sector, Androlov declined to run for governor a third time in 2016.

His declination opened the floodgates on the NAT side. A record eight major candidates entered the race (only seven remain). The large field of candidates has party leaders worried that, without a clear front-runner, a bloody primary battle will only damage the eventual NAT nominee and ensure a third Lindstrom term.

One-time front-runner Mark Haller, a state senator and lawyer from southeast Koeurn, remains the preferred choice of most party leaders. However, some within the leadership have lost confidence in Haller as his front-runner status has been erased.

The latest poll conducted in the race by the Koeurn Daily Courier showed Churchtown Mayor Paul Biddington and Carlinegan businessman Russ Hawley at the top of the field, tied with 15% each. Haller trailed them closely, with 14 percent, while state Rep. Jon Erickson of Kollandon and outspoken AnsEnergy owner and CEO Rosamond Burkes rounded out the top five, both with 13 percent.

Progressive Koeurn City Councilman Paris Westerman garnered 11% support in the poll, Pete Coble, an executive with Sudsill Oil Co., captured 10% and businessman Bill Seiffert of Gilliam lagged in last place with nine percent.

(Since the poll was conducted, Mr. Erickson announced he would end his campaign for governor and instead run for attorney general, where he will challenge CNS incumbent Richard Tierlot, who is seeking his third but second full term).

Mr. Biddington and Mr. Hawley sought to portray the latest poll results as confirmation that they are the strongest candidates to take on Dale Lindstrom. But with 15% support, the two top-poll-getters are hardly front runners. Their lead is statistically insignificant and tenuous at best.

The two men could not be more different in their ideology. Biddington is a hard-line liberal hailing from the state’s most liberal city. He called for war crimes charges against former President Dan Byelle, he spear-headed an effort to remove references to God and Christianity from the architecture of the Churchtown City Hall building, and under his leadership, Churchtown became among the first cities in the nation to implement a tax on plastic bags at grocery stores in an effort to cut down on pollution.

Hawley, on the other hand, is a moderate, business-friendly, pro-coal, low-taxes advocate. He built his agricultural tech business, AgriTech, from the ground up, and argues that low taxes and a business-friendly climate are key to Ansleigha’s economic strength. He supports alternative energy but wants to protect the coal industry, which is the lifeblood of southwest Ansleigha’s mountainous coal country. Hawley opposes a $15 minimum wage and a worker’s bill of rights, saying they would harm businesses, but he does support mandatory sick leave and maternity leave.

Mark Haller is notably more liberal than Mr. Hawley, but Haller’s policies are not as far left as Mr. Biddington’s, despite the fact that he and Biddington are good personal friends. Haller supports raising the minimum wage, but incrementally and only on some businesses. He wants to all but prohibit smoking tobacco at all government facilities, including schools and universities. He opposes legalizing marijuana, but wants to create a citizen’s commission to oversee police conduct to combat police brutality, which he argues disproportionately affects minority communities.

Mr. Erickson lacks the name recognition that many of his former opponents have. He also lacks deep pockets or strong connections with donors. Those reasons may have played into his decision to leave the governor’s race and run for attorney general instead. For his part, Erickson says he made the decision because he concluded winning the NAT primary would be difficult.

Additionally, Mr. Erickson told Ansleigha Public Radio last week that his campaign staff believe Tierlot would be easier to beat in a general election than Lindstrom.

A handsome state representative from Kollandon in central Ansleigha, at age 35, Erickson will likely be the youngest candidate for statewide office on the November ballot, assuming he wins the NAT primary for attorney general, something that is all but guaranteed since the party had no viable candidate before Erickson.

Mr. Erickson is an Iraq War veteran, and leverages his combat experience when speaking with voters, comparing his battlefield stories with battling “politics of fear” in Rawlingsworth, the state capitol.

With Erickson out of the governor’s race now, the candidate pursued most by the media – and the most unpredictable candidate – is Rosamond Burkes. Age 67, Ms. Burkes is the owner and CEO of AnsEnergy, a coal power company based in rural Chadwick County, about 40 miles northwest of Rawlingsworth.

Burkes is an unusual candidate. With a brash, tell-it-like-it-is personality, she’s been criticized for controversial comments and insults she’s hurled at her opponents and others. In a press conference earlier this week, Mark Haller referred to her as the “female version of Donald Trump.” Burkes is well-known for her passionate, angry rants that often contain many expletives.

In addition to her colourful personality, Ms. Burkes is a strange candidate because of her seemingly contradicting policy positions.

As the owner of a major coal company, she is strongly supportive of the coal industry and has strongly opposed regulations on coal producers in the past. In a 2006 interview with the Daily Courier, Burkes famously said she didn’t “give a damn” about the environment. “I care about money, about jobs, about powering this country, about the economy. I don’t have time for the earthy-earthy, hippy, pussy, wimps and their save-the-world s**t,” she said.

Burkes has also opposed fair trade and has been the target of labour groups’ grievances for her handling of workers’ rights cases involving her employees.

At the same time, while she holds pro-business and pro-coal positions, the fiery spinster (she never married, telling the GBC’s Ian Duncan in a 1999 interview.

“I don’t need a god-damned man), holds positions on the far left.

She’s staunchly pro-choice. She frequently rails against the political class in Rawlingsworth and Mavocke. She angrily vowed to take care of veterans, after alleged poor conditions and treatment at a veterans hospital in Koeurn. And contradicting her anti-environment remarks, Ms. Burkes is a conservationist. She’s donated millions of dollars to help save endangered species and to help protect millions of acres of old-growth forest in Ansleigha and neighboring Lial.

Burkes has been a magnet for media attention, with her rousing speeches and large campaign rallies. But she’s struggled to win over the party’s most liberal voters. She polls well with young voters, but struggles with seniors and upper-income, educated Nationalists.

Then there’s Koeurn City Councilman Paris Westerman, the goofy-looking professor who is known for his trademark bow tie. Westerman entered the race late, but his chances would have been slim had he been the first candidate in the race. With solidly liberal policies, he plays well with the liberal base of the party, including with college students and educated voters.

But his wonkish style and overly-intellectual personality put him at a disadvantage compared to other candidates who excel in communicating and identifying with average voters.

Pete Coble is one of those politicians. Folksy and down-to-earth, Mr. Coble has a knack for winning over blue-collar voters, primarily in coal country. Unfortunately, his campaign has failed to gain traction elsewhere across the state.

The same can be said of Bill Seiffert, the researcher and businessman from Gilliam. Educated and accomplished, Mr. Seiffert is attractive to a certain niche of voters but struggles to reach beyond educated white voters in northern Ansleigha.

With such a wide field of candidates, NAT party leaders are increasingly anxious, fearing a divisive primary would all but hand the general election to Dale Lindstrom, who faces one nominal primary challenger, inventor Bill Taitenaugh from Ebendale.

Dr. Kerry Rudgley, chair of Dulkalow University’s Edinough School of Government, rates the 2016 Ansleigha gubernatorial race as “CNS favored.”