BROOKINGS, Biereland--A new poll released Monday cannot be good news for freshman Biereland Governor San Bartholomew (N), who is seeking re-election in 2014.
The Opinion Research poll shows Bartholomew trailing Attorney General Ben Jordan 44% to 56% in a hypothetical match-up.
Brookings Mayor Rich DeFrancesco, who has publicly said he would not run but is said to still be considering a bid, also tops Bartholomew, 45% to 54 percent.
And former Conservative Senator Bob Kozzy of Kensington, who leans more libertarian on many issues, narrowly leads Bartholomew, 49% to 51 percent.
Stuart Goodman, the veteran pollster who conducted the survey for Opinion Research, notes the numbers aren't good for Bartholomew, but it's still early.
"When you're an incumbent and you're running for re-election, you never want to see your numbers dip below 50 percent," said Goodman. "That being said, San Bartholomew still has time to turn around those numbers. We have eighteen months before the next election, and that is an eternity three times over in politics. The tables could very quickly turn in Bartholomew's favor in that long of a time period."
Bartholomew has been struggling in the polls mainly due to the poor economy in Biereland. He campaigned on a theme of fixing the economy and investing in state government after massive cuts during the administration of former Governor Jenny Duschowitz (C), whom Bartholomew defeated in 2010.
The incumbent governor has restored funding to many state agencies, but the economy has yet to make significant improvements. The state's unemployment rate stands at 8% and housing prices have yet to make marked gains.
Bartholomew also picked a fight with the timber and mining industries when he attempted to push strong environmental restrictions through the state legislature. His bill was passed narrowly, but only after being significantly pared down from its original version.
In the process of taking on the timber and mining sectors, Bartholomew not only alienated industry leaders but also took heat from local leaders and citizens in timber counties, particularly in the Upscotch Mountains region along the Biereland-Wellington state border, where timber is the life-blood for local economies.
The first-term Nationalist has focused on other issues too. In July 2011, he delivered on his campaign promise to legalize medical marijuana, something Conservatives bitterly opposed.
Following that legislative victory, Bartholomew recently endorsed a new effort to legalize marijuana for recreational use. Supporters of marijuana reform have drafted a referendum that will appear on the 2014 ballot, if they obtain enough signatures. The proposed law would make the possession of one ounce of marijuana legal for persons 21 and over.
Bartholomew has already thrown his support behind the measure, which would make Biereland the first state in the nation to legalize marijuana, if passed.
Conservatives see Bartholomew as vulnerable, however. With a struggling economy, a contentious social issue (marijuana legalization), and environmental restrictions they say hurt industry and prevent job growth, they believe Bartholomew is beatable in 2014, especially considering Biereland's more conservative political tilt.
Bartholomew won in 2010 in part due to a national anti-CNS mood among voters, but also because he attacked his opponent for presiding over a down-and-out economy--a strategy Conservatives hope to employ to defeat him in 2014.
And they have no shortage of potential candidates.
Front-runner Attorney General Ben Jordan is a hero among the party's base. He has taken a hard-line opposing the federal government and reinforcing state sovereignty. And he has targeted gambling and radical environmentalists in his first term as AG, something that has endeared him to the far-right.
He's been careful not to get too extreme, however. Something the party leadership appreciates, especially in light of Biereland voters' history of electing moderates.
But Jordan is facing strong opposition from former Federal Senator Bob Kozzy, who was defeated in his re-election bid in 2008.
A moderate, Kozzy favors lower taxes, less environmental restrictions, and a stream-lining of state government.
He does agree with Bartholomew on social issues, however. Most notably, he supports the legalization of recreational marijuana and is pro-choice.
The former senator has made his criticism of Ben Jordan loud and clear.
"Ben Jordan is an extreme right-wing, hyper-partisan figure. He's also an establishment figure. He campaigns on the idea of reforming state government and changing Brookings, but he's an insider. He's been in Brookings for years. Do we really think he's going to change the culture of Brookings?" Kozzy said to reporters last week.
Jordan and Kozzy are the only two declared Conservative candidates in the race thus far. Most political observers see Jordan as the more viable candidate, both among CNS primary voters and in the general election.
And then there's Brookings Mayor Rich DeFrancesco, who said back in January he would not run for governor in 2014, but is reportedly reconsidering, according to sources close to him.
Former Governor Jenny Duschowitz, who Bartholomew ousted in 2010, has also publicly declined to run for her old position.
Other prominent Biereland Conservatives, like Dick Klondis, CEO of the Klondis Beer Company; Driscoll Sherber, the former senator who lost re-election in 2010 amid a personal scandal and extramarital affair; and Pete Kolotano, the businessman and brother of former Federal Senator Steve Kolotano (N), could all enter the race, although a run by any of them seems unlikely.
One thing is clear though: San Bartholomew faces a difficult fight for re-election in 2014, no matter which Conservative opponent he faces in the general election.
Party infighting in the Conservative ranks, particularly between the campaigns of Ben Jordan and Bob Kozzy, will only help Bartholomew and damage his opponents. But the incumbent governor has work to do to repair his image with dissatisfied Bierelanders.
"It's not too late for San Bartholomew, not at all," pollster Stuart Goodman says. "But he needs to be at a 55% approval rating at the very minimum to get re-elected. Right now his approval rating is at 37%, and he's trailing all of his likely opponents. That does not bode well for an incumbent."
The Opinion Research poll shows Bartholomew trailing Attorney General Ben Jordan 44% to 56% in a hypothetical match-up.
Brookings Mayor Rich DeFrancesco, who has publicly said he would not run but is said to still be considering a bid, also tops Bartholomew, 45% to 54 percent.
And former Conservative Senator Bob Kozzy of Kensington, who leans more libertarian on many issues, narrowly leads Bartholomew, 49% to 51 percent.
Stuart Goodman, the veteran pollster who conducted the survey for Opinion Research, notes the numbers aren't good for Bartholomew, but it's still early.
"When you're an incumbent and you're running for re-election, you never want to see your numbers dip below 50 percent," said Goodman. "That being said, San Bartholomew still has time to turn around those numbers. We have eighteen months before the next election, and that is an eternity three times over in politics. The tables could very quickly turn in Bartholomew's favor in that long of a time period."
Bartholomew has been struggling in the polls mainly due to the poor economy in Biereland. He campaigned on a theme of fixing the economy and investing in state government after massive cuts during the administration of former Governor Jenny Duschowitz (C), whom Bartholomew defeated in 2010.
The incumbent governor has restored funding to many state agencies, but the economy has yet to make significant improvements. The state's unemployment rate stands at 8% and housing prices have yet to make marked gains.
Bartholomew also picked a fight with the timber and mining industries when he attempted to push strong environmental restrictions through the state legislature. His bill was passed narrowly, but only after being significantly pared down from its original version.
In the process of taking on the timber and mining sectors, Bartholomew not only alienated industry leaders but also took heat from local leaders and citizens in timber counties, particularly in the Upscotch Mountains region along the Biereland-Wellington state border, where timber is the life-blood for local economies.
The first-term Nationalist has focused on other issues too. In July 2011, he delivered on his campaign promise to legalize medical marijuana, something Conservatives bitterly opposed.
Following that legislative victory, Bartholomew recently endorsed a new effort to legalize marijuana for recreational use. Supporters of marijuana reform have drafted a referendum that will appear on the 2014 ballot, if they obtain enough signatures. The proposed law would make the possession of one ounce of marijuana legal for persons 21 and over.
Bartholomew has already thrown his support behind the measure, which would make Biereland the first state in the nation to legalize marijuana, if passed.
Conservatives see Bartholomew as vulnerable, however. With a struggling economy, a contentious social issue (marijuana legalization), and environmental restrictions they say hurt industry and prevent job growth, they believe Bartholomew is beatable in 2014, especially considering Biereland's more conservative political tilt.
Bartholomew won in 2010 in part due to a national anti-CNS mood among voters, but also because he attacked his opponent for presiding over a down-and-out economy--a strategy Conservatives hope to employ to defeat him in 2014.
And they have no shortage of potential candidates.
Front-runner Attorney General Ben Jordan is a hero among the party's base. He has taken a hard-line opposing the federal government and reinforcing state sovereignty. And he has targeted gambling and radical environmentalists in his first term as AG, something that has endeared him to the far-right.
He's been careful not to get too extreme, however. Something the party leadership appreciates, especially in light of Biereland voters' history of electing moderates.
But Jordan is facing strong opposition from former Federal Senator Bob Kozzy, who was defeated in his re-election bid in 2008.
A moderate, Kozzy favors lower taxes, less environmental restrictions, and a stream-lining of state government.
He does agree with Bartholomew on social issues, however. Most notably, he supports the legalization of recreational marijuana and is pro-choice.
The former senator has made his criticism of Ben Jordan loud and clear.
"Ben Jordan is an extreme right-wing, hyper-partisan figure. He's also an establishment figure. He campaigns on the idea of reforming state government and changing Brookings, but he's an insider. He's been in Brookings for years. Do we really think he's going to change the culture of Brookings?" Kozzy said to reporters last week.
Jordan and Kozzy are the only two declared Conservative candidates in the race thus far. Most political observers see Jordan as the more viable candidate, both among CNS primary voters and in the general election.
And then there's Brookings Mayor Rich DeFrancesco, who said back in January he would not run for governor in 2014, but is reportedly reconsidering, according to sources close to him.
Former Governor Jenny Duschowitz, who Bartholomew ousted in 2010, has also publicly declined to run for her old position.
Other prominent Biereland Conservatives, like Dick Klondis, CEO of the Klondis Beer Company; Driscoll Sherber, the former senator who lost re-election in 2010 amid a personal scandal and extramarital affair; and Pete Kolotano, the businessman and brother of former Federal Senator Steve Kolotano (N), could all enter the race, although a run by any of them seems unlikely.
One thing is clear though: San Bartholomew faces a difficult fight for re-election in 2014, no matter which Conservative opponent he faces in the general election.
Party infighting in the Conservative ranks, particularly between the campaigns of Ben Jordan and Bob Kozzy, will only help Bartholomew and damage his opponents. But the incumbent governor has work to do to repair his image with dissatisfied Bierelanders.
"It's not too late for San Bartholomew, not at all," pollster Stuart Goodman says. "But he needs to be at a 55% approval rating at the very minimum to get re-elected. Right now his approval rating is at 37%, and he's trailing all of his likely opponents. That does not bode well for an incumbent."
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