Sunday, November 4, 2012

New poll has Wainwright leading with plurality

OLIVER, Carova--One of the nation's premier Senate races is shaping up to be a tight competition to the very end.

Incumbent Sen. Julie Wynmyer (DR), is facing a difficult fight for re-election against NAT environmentalist Becki Salmon and former Conservative Sen. Dan Wainwright.

A North Star/Carova Statesman poll released last week showed Wainwright leading with 39%, followed by Salmon with 31% and Wynmyer with 30 percent.

But a new poll released today by The Outlander, Oliver's daily newspaper, has Wainwright securing the 40% necessary to avoid a run-off election.

The poll shows Wainwright leading with 41%, followed by Wynmyer with 33%, and Salmon with 27 percent.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 points.

It's evidence this race could be among the closest of this election cycle.

All three political parties have spent millions of dollars on the three-way race, with Conservatives having spent $4.7 million on Wainwright's behalf, and Nationalist and Democratic-Reformists jointly spending $5.3 million for Wynmyer.

Salmon's candidacy has not been sanctioned by the national NAT party leadership, who are instead backing Wynmyer in exchange for her agreement to caucus with the NAT in the Senate.

The same Outlander poll found Dan McGregor (N) leading incumbent interim Attorney General Jeff Littleton (C) by a margin of 56% to 44 percent.

The two are competing to fill the remaining two years of former AG and current Senate candidate Dan Wainwright's term.

Littleton's defeat would be a blow to Conservatives, especially CNS Gov. Sam Byelle, who appointed Littleton to the position following Wainwright's election to the Senate in 2011.

It's possible the Conservative Party may gain a federal senator, but lose the attorney general's seat.

But the fate of the candidates will ultimately be decided by the voters on election day.


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