LANSDALE, Province of Grassadellia--The premier Conservative Senate primary in POG has ended in a near tie, with Assemblywoman Julie Dennings of Dynsmore Hills trailing Independent-turned-Conservative businessman Mike Indano by just over 9,100 votes out of more than 3.5 million ballots cast.
State election law requires an automatic recount if there is less than 0.5% separating two candidates. Only 0.25% separate Indano and Dennings, according to Secretary of State Max Kiesling, who said election workers have already begun the recounting process.
Most political experts expected the four-way race for the Conservative Senate nomination to be close. But virtually no one expected the little-known Indano, a self-made millionaire from Kingham who previously ran for the Senate in 2010 as an Independent, to come out on top.
Dennings and another businessman, realtor Terry Silvi of Garamond Lake, were considered the two front runners. Incumbent Sen. Charlie Quince, who was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Donna Almone in 2007 but was never elected, was widely anticipated to lose his bid for election, after angering Conservatives with his a moderate voting record.
The final tally of the initial count, released by Secretary of State Kiesling's office this morning, shows Indano leading with 28.49% or 1,024,884 votes. Close behind is Rep. Dennings, with 28.24% or 1,015,757 votes. Silvi is in a decisive third place, with 25.48% or 916,581 votes, and Quince trails badly with just 17.78%, or 639,522 votes.
Quince conceded early Tuesday evening, after it became overwhelmingly apparent he would not be close to winning. He thanked his supporters, who gathered in Knoxbury in the central part of the state, and thanked Gov. Almone for giving him the chance to serve in "the best job of my life."
Silvi also conceded later in the night, telling his supporters in east Lansdale that he was grateful for the agenda they had advanced, and he looked forward to working with the eventual CNS nominee, whomever it may be.
"Whether it's Mike Indano or Julie Dennings that emerges from this very, very close race, we must get behind our Conservative colleagues and our CNS nominee so we can win the election and take this country back," Silvi said to moderate applause.
Indano's campaign celebration in downtown Kingham was ecstatic, as enthused supporters celebrated their candidate's unlikely though tenuous victory.
"Tonight, we just gave the establishment a shock. We just sent a jolt through the entire political community in POG and in Grassadellia," Indano said to cheers. "We proved that an unlikely candidate, who the media has written off and people in the party and in the press have written off, can actually come from behind, can overcome the incredible odds and can come out on top."
Indano stopped short of claiming victory outright, but he did point out that he was leading.
"This race is going to be very close, and we can't say for certain yet what the outcome is, but we are leading at present, and we can celebrate that we have ran an incredible campaign. I think that deserves celebrating."
Dennings was cautious in her election night speech, telling supporters gathered in west Lansdale that the race was close and may not be decided for days.
"Just like last time, when we ran against Congressman Hafen [in 2010], this race is extremely close. We may not know how things are going to end for several days. And we have to press on, and keep our game face on until the dust has settled and everything is decided with certainty," she said.
Dennings added that her campaign is considering all options.
"No options are off the table at this point. We are pursuing every option we have. Obviously, we want the integrity of the election to be upheld, and we want an accurate count and we will go to great lengths to ensure that that happens," she told the NPF Wednesday morning.
The Conservative Senate Campaign Committee, headed by Ansleigha Sen. Jon Ralston, also stopped short of declaring a winner. But Ralston appeared on Jim Danderfield's Landscape program on the GBC, and told Danderfield "either way, the Conservative Party has a solid candidate in Julie Dennings or Mike Indano."
Not only was Indano's apparent election-night victory a shock to the rival campaigns, which anticipated a showdown between Julie Dennings and Terry Silvi, it was also a shock to party officials inside and outside the province.
Privately, sources within the party tell GNN that CNS leaders were hoping Dennings would prevail. Their second choice was Silvi.
"They didn't get either of their top choices. It should be interesting to see how well the party coalesces around Mike Indano now that he is the likely winner," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to discuss the party's inner workings, told GNN.
Conservative leaders are less than enthused with Indano after he ran in the 2010 Federal Senate election as an Independent. Indano won about 7 percent of the vote in that race, and the Conservative candidate, Rep. Bobby Hafen Jr., did win the general election. However, Indano spent much of his 2010 Senate campaign trashing the Conservative and Nationalist parties, and top CNS leaders question his loyalty to the party.
"Did he have a change of heart over the last two years? Or did he change his party affiliation to Conservative because he felt it would make him more electable? Either way it makes people suspicious," party strategist Alan Gould told GNN's James Madine on the Capitol Report.
Indano's campaign has shrugged off accusations that he has been overly-critical of the Conservative Party.
"When Mike ran for the Senate in 2010, he did criticize the Conservative Party. He also criticized the Nationalist Party," senior campaign aid Kyle Staven told the NPF. "Both parties have flaws, and both parties get too entrenched when they've been in power for too long. Just because someone criticizes the actions of the political parties does not mean they are disloyal. It just means they are brave enough to confront the skeletons in their own party's closet."
Why did Indano not run as a Conservative in 2010? Out of protest, his campaign says.
"Mike Indano has always been a Conservative. He believes in the Conservative Party. He opted not to run as a Conservative in the last election because he wanted to make a point," Staven said.
Specifically, Indano took issue with how Bobby Hafen was "anointed" by party leaders as the Conservative nominee before the primary election even took place.
"I like Bobby Hafen. I respect him. I think he's a good man. But I didn't appreciate how the party leadership got behind him right off the bat and discounted every other candidate and pushed them out of the way to make way for Bobby," Indano told the GBC's Matt Howard. "I don't think that was right."
Dennings' campaign had raised the issue of Indano's questioned loyalty late in the campaign, when Indano's rise in the polls became evident. But Dennings spent much of the preceding months of the campaign attacking Terry Silvi, whom was anticipated to be the greater threat to her candidacy.
Most of the campaign mud-slinging revolved around Indano and Silvi's vast personal wealth. Both men are multi-millionaires, with Indano going from rags-to-riches and Silvi having inherited much of his fortune from his father, who was also in the real estate business.
Throughout the race, the Dennings and Quince camps hurled attacks at Indano and Silvi for trying to "buy" the Senate seat with their personal fortunes. Dennings told the GBC she was "concerned whenever a candidate tries to pour their vast personal wealth into a political campaign."
"It certainly raises concerns, especially to middle-class POGeans who don't have that kind of money lying around to put to good use much less politics," Dennings said.
For Dennings, a loss to Indano would be especially heart-breaking, since she also lost the CNS Senate nomination in 2010 by a small margin. A defeat this time around would mean two back-to-back, extremely close losses in successive election cycles.
This race was also undoubtedly discouraging for Terry Silvi, who also ran in the last election and came up short. Many political observers believed 2012 would be his year to break through.
And for Charlie Quince, who was never elected and was hoping to change that, the drubbing he took in the polls means the end of his Senate career.
But other candidates saw victory in the primary election. On the NAT side, current Secretary of State Max Kiesling won a very close primary for the Federal Senate. Kiesling is hoping to move up to the Senate, and faced a formidable challenge from Lansdale businessman and political newcomer Pat Gaynor.
Kiesling won with 51% of the vote, beating Gaynor by just over 60,000 votes. To avoid the appearance of a conflict of interest, Kiesling also had his friend and neighboring counterpart, Wilkonshire Secretary of State Jan Van Ness, oversee the election night work.
Kiesling will face Conservative incumbent Sen. Dick Trau in the general election.
Also on the NAT side, it was a showdown between two assemblywomen and former Senate candidates for the NAT Senate nomination for position four.
Rep. Diane Coke of Ellsmere in northern POG faced off against Rep. Jill Yateri of Hapler Valley in southern POG. Yateri ran for the Senate in 2008 and won the Nationalist party's backing, but lost the general election. She ran again in 2010, but lost in the NAT primary to Coke, who ended up losing to Bobby Hafen in the general election.
The two, who have publicly feuded since the 2010 campaign, spent much of the preceding months accusing the other of having ran before with no success. Coke built on Yateri's own words to paint her as too extreme, while Yateri accused Coke of being too compromising and unable to bring real change.
Nationalist voters sided with Coke, however, giving her 57% of the vote. Yateri led in the most liberal counties in the state, but struggled in the Lansdale region and the rural, more conservative counties.
Coke will go on to face Assemblywoman Fran Habries of Canton North, who won the Conservative primary unopposed.
Incumbent Gov. Donna Almone and her running mate, state Rep. Fletcher Grisman, won the CNS gubernatorial nod, while Lansdale Mayor Ollie Fugazzi and his running mate, lawyer Kiera Lindeman, won the NAT gubernatorial primary, respectively.
Almone and Grisman are favored to win in the general election.
The race for governor is considered especially crucial, given that the next governor will preside over POG's transition to a smaller geographic territory and new borders, as well as transitioning state agencies to adjust to the changes.
The next governor will be elected to a special two-year term. Beginning in 2014, the governor will be elected for four year terms again, as in the past.