Thursday, August 28, 2008
Brown Survives Close Primary Race, Frascanio Advances To General Election
Brown Fends Off Strong Challenge From Bryan Kim
VRISTO COLONADO, TRI--The Golden Shore was a hot-bed of political activity Thursday night, with two high-profile races being decided by small margins.
The first race saw incumbent Senator Brian Brown of Wilmington face-off against fellow conservative and businessman Bryan Kim, of southwestern Trinton. Brown, chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee, has been embattled after his seemingly slow response to a series of small plane crashes his committee was assigned to investigate earlier this year.
Nationalists and conservatives criticized Brown for his lack of urgency in the investigation process. Kim's attacks against Brown primarily centered around the senator's controversy with the transportation comittee.
In the end, however, the voters rejected Kim's message of change and his decidedly more conservative tilt. Brown barely escaped the primary with just 51.94% to Kim's 48.06%.
"Brian Brown will now advance to the general election, but the fact that nearly half of his party's voters didn't support him in the primary has got to be troubling for him," says Trinton University political science professor George Rutherford.
Polling data shows Brown did well in central Trinton and along the northern coast, while Kim was strongest in the western and southern parts of the state.
At a campaign celebration in Wilmington, Senator Brown told supporters he was "honored" the voters are sending him to the general election and said there is "still a lot of work to be done."
In the state's other Senate race, Reps. George Reedsworth of Wilmington and Kelsey Frascanio of Trinton (city) challenged each other for the seat being vacated by CNS Sen. Richard C. Parker. Reedsworth, a moderate, argued his 30-plus years of experience, particularly on military issues, prepared him for the House. Frascanio countered her youth and energy would bring a new feel to the House. She also pushed her gender, as a woman has never been elected to the House of Delegates from the state of Trinton.
"This is an historic opportunity for the people of Trinton to elect a woman to the House of Delegates," Frascanio told WTRI-TV back in June. "But I want the people of Trinton to elect me because I'm the better candidate, not just because I'm a woman."
Reedsworth is respected state-wide for his experience and his national-security credentials. Frascanio is likewise admired, though she has a more conservative voting record.
Last month, Reedsworth landed the endorsement of the out-going Parker. However, last-minute endorsements from Sen. Greg Baxter and Rep. Cathy Mace may have put Frascanio over the top.
According to polling results, Frascanio narrowly beat out Reedsworth, taking 51.28% to Reedsworth's 48.72%, a difference of just 18,451 votes.
"It was a hell of a race," Reedsworth told the Golden Shore Tribune newspaper. "Kelsey gave it her all and I gave it my all and she won. I congratulate her."
Trinton's Secretary of State, Trip Kellet, says voter turnout was at 46%. An estimated 1.4 million Trintonians took part in Thursday's primary.
Brown and Frascanio will now advance to the general election. Brown will face NAT banker Tim Blakewell of Wilmington. Frascanio will face NAT two opponents: Sandi Allen, a real-estate broker from Ocean City, and Paul Whitton, an economics professor from University of Trinton, who is running as a Liberal-Democrat.
GNN News' Political Team rates the Brown/Blakewell race as "leans NAT," and rates Frascanio/Allen/Whitton as "No Clear Favorite," the most competetive rating.
Monday, August 25, 2008
No Upsets In Lial Primary
Close Races, But No Surprises In Lial's Primary
CLOTHEN, LIA--Voters in Lial decided three close races in last night's primary election, yielding new challengers to the state's three delegates up for re-election.
A last-minute endorsement from nationalist Dlg. John Morandi may have helped Rep. Stephanie Manning (N-Clothen) secure her party's nomination to challenge two-term conservative Dlg. Steven McIntosh. Manning narrowly defeated fellow congresswoman Jamie Scousenovy (N-Koeurn) by a margin of 52.03% to Scousenovy's 47.97%. Manning was favored to win last night's contest, especially after receiving an endorsement from former Lial governor Kylee Thompson (NAT) last month. However, the race was slightly closer than expected. A poll conducted the day before the election showed Manning leading Scousenovy by five points, 47%-42%, with 11% undecided or choosing other candidates.
In her victory speech, Rep. Manning pledged to "partner" with Scousenovy in an effort to unseat McIntosh. She also promised to do "everything possible" to unite the state's nationalist party.
"We are one party with many ideas, but ultimately we are one party with one goal: to get Steven McIntosh out of office," Manning said to cheering supporters.
McIntosh has long been considered one of the most vulnerable conservative delegates in the 2008 election cycle. A moderate, and a leader on environmental issues, he is facing stern opposition from both the left and right. As of July 31st, Senator McIntosh had raised $12.7 million. In comparison, Manning has just $4.6 million.
On the CNS side last night, it was a tight finish between three conservatives: Rep. Katie Bronure, of Lial's first congressional district, Rep. Ryan Moore, of the eighth congressional district, and Rep. Jeff Woonby of the 13th district. Pre-election polls had shown a close race, but the final results were closer than expected. Bronure barely ended up the victor, pulling in 34.99% to Moore's 33.80%, and Woonby's 31.21%. Exit-polls show most of Bronure's support came from western and northern Lial, while Moore received huge support in the south-central portions of the state, and Woonby in the south-eastern corner of the state. Bronure will now go on to challenge Dlg. Juslana Thompson, who has $11.1 million in her bank account, compared to Bronure's $2.4 million.
And no surprise in the race between conservative activist Libby Marshall and state senator John Dearling. Marshall was leading by seven points in a poll conducted the day before the election. But Dearling cut that lead almost in half. In the end, Marshall still emerged the winner, garnering 52.30% to Dearling's 47.70%. Marshall, whose combative demeanor has delighted some and worried others, will advance to the general election, where he will face two-term incumbent Susan Thompson (NAT). Thompson is considered one of the NAT's most vulnerable incumbents of for re-election this year. However, the latest poll pitting Marshall versus Thompson showed the incumbent with 61% to Marshall's 34%, with 5% undecided. It could still be a challenge for the CNS to pick off Thompson this fall.
Lial's Secretary of Elections, Alan Dillon, says voter turnout for the primary was at 42%. Voter turnout for the general election is expected to be around 80%.
While conservatives having been gaining ground recently in Lial, most notably in 2006 with the election of Governor Gavin Gymbal and Lieutenant Governor Andy Peakmore, the state still remains a bastion for liberalism. In the 2004 presidential election, Lial went to Brenton Menuhaeo 60% to Dan Byelle's 40%. In this year's presidential race, recent polls show Brenton Menuhaeo holding a 62%-38% lead over Jim Frasier.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Hamblin Endorses Fulbright In ARA Governor's Race
Dale Fulbright holds comfortable lead over Ray Cognelli
MAINE CITY, ARA--Conservative delegate Dale Fulbright holds a comfortable lead over nationalist rival Lieutenant Governor Ray Cognelli, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
Fulbright leads Cognelli 52%-38%, with 10% of voters undecided, according to the Tallingham University poll. The margin of error is 4.5 points. The poll included 777 registered voters from across the state.
Fulbright, the popular two-term delegate, has long been a respected member of Armana's political community. He is a staunch conservative--on economic and social issues--and even made history by becoming the first Mormon elected to the federal congress in Grassadellan history. Though strongly conservative on issues like gay marriage and abortion, Fulbright is well-respected, even by members of the Nationalist party, for his bipartisanship and ability to reach across the aisle. Though somewhat more conservative than Armana's electorate, Fulbright's affable personality and his bipartisan record have buoyed his popularity and helped him stay in office.
Originally a state legislator, Fulbright went on to become president of the state senate, and then ran for the House of Delegates, sailing to victory in both his 1996 race, and his 2002 bid for re-election.
Last year, Fulbright announced he would not run for a third term in the House, but instead would run for governor. "It's time for a change, a personal change for me," he told Maine City's Morning News last January. "I've enjoyed representing our state in Mavocke, but I would love to represent the people of Armana as governor, and I think I would be a good fit for the job."
Since then, Fulbright has steadily raised money for his campaign. As of July 31st, the senator had raised $8.1 million, while nationalist opponent Lieutenant Governor Ray Cognelli had raised a little over $6.4 million. Despite a sizeable edge in money, Fulbright has spent only about $1.4 million, while Cognelli has spent $3.2 million. Cognelli must spend more money, however, as he has far less name recognition than his conservative opponent.
Fulbright has been endorsed by just about every conservative congressional representative in Armana. Reps. Dave Charm and Jerry Topahane of southwestern Armana have announced their support for the senator. Reps. Mary Vaagen, and Kelly Frois of south-central Armana have also voiced their support. Reps. Dave Charm and Jodie Holles of western Armana and Reps. Joel Zuckermann, Lou Rhelmna, and Robert Maclan, who represent districts in the Maine City area, have also endorsed Fulbright.
Analysts note that Zuckermann and Maclan are both seeking election to the House of Delegates, so their endorsements may be part of a campaign strategy. "It's very likely that Joel Zuckermann and Robert Maclan have endorsed Senator Fulbright for governor because they're hoping his popularity will spill over to their campaigns and boost their candidacies," says Dr. Robert Duncan from the University of Armana--Maine City.
Fulbright's conservative colleagues in the House of Delegates are also campaiging on his behalf. Senators Chuck Danbury, Dana Glow, and Bill Koeltz have all publicly endorsed Fulbright in his bid for the governorship.
Perhaps the most surprising and significant endorsement for Fulbright, however, comes from outside his own party. NAT senator Bert Hamblin announced yesterday he is supporting his fellow colleague over Cognelli, a fellow nationalist.
"I have weighed the decision, and I think what it really boils down to is, 'who is the better candidate?'" Hamblin told GBC's Gene Caughley. "I've worked with Delegate Fulbright. I've seen him in action. I've seen the kind of man he is, the kind of character he has. Not only is he prepared to lead our state as governor, he is also able to bring nationalist and conservatives together. I have seen him do it here in the House of Delegates in Mavocke, and I know he will do it as governor of Armana in New Salem," Hamblin said.
Hamblin, a moderate nationalist who retired from the House of Delegates in 2005, but was appointed by Governor Billy Jay Nelson to fill out the remainder of the late Delegate Elizabeth Riley's term, has stunned his nationalist colleagues by repeatedly crossing over to vote with the opposing conservative party. Particularly on issues of national security and the military, Hamblin often sides with the Byelle administration and his conservative colleagues in the House.
His endorsement of Fulbright stunned fellow nationalists, who saw it as an unnecessary move that could damage the campaign of the often-divisive Cognelli. But because the senator is not running for re-election, it is unlikely he will face any political repercussions.
Fulbright's campaign heralded the endorsement, touting it as an example of the senator's bipartisan ways and wide appeal to people of all political ideologies.
"Senator Hamblin's endorsement is further proof that Dale Fulbright is the person most likely to get things done in New Salem by bringing together nationalist and conservatives and breaking down partisan lines to get things accomplished for the people of Armana," David Arks, spokesman for the campaign, said in a statement.
Cognelli turned the endorsement around, claiming it is proof Dale Fulbright is out of touch with ordinary Armanans.
"I think the endorsements from Senator Hamblin and Senator Danbury and all these other senators and congressmen are proof that Dale Fulbright is more connected with Mavocke than he is with the state of Armana," he told the press at a campaign stop in Dube City.
Endorsements notwithstanding, it appears Lieutenant Governor Cognelli has a lot of catching up to do before November, according to Dr. Duncan.
"Armana is a nationalist-leaning state, and the fact that Ray Cognelli is trailing Dale Fulbright by so much at this point in the race is troubling. He has a lot of work to do to become competitive."
Monday, August 18, 2008
Kelley Requests Additional Federal Funding For Forest Fire Prevention
DES governor asks federal government for more funding and resources
RIDGEVIEW, DES--Deschire still faces a high risk of forest fires, Governor Sharon Kelley said Monday. Because of higher temperatures and a lack of moisture, the governor is requesting additional funding from the federal government.
Speaking to a group of fire fighters in Ridgeview, Kelley warned "the fire season is not over," and "Deschire is still at risk" for devestating wildfires.
She called on President Byelle and the Department of Federal Lands to provide more funding for fire prevention, and more resources in case fires flare up.
This year's fire season has been relatively uneventful. The nation's largest wildfire is burning in northeastern Wellington, and has consumed over 30,000 acres. Other big fires are burning in southwestern Remmington and southern Monomi. The state of Deschire has had few significant wildfires, with the largest one burning 1,300 acres northeast of Berivian.
So far this year, only Wellington Governor Peter Kosevich has declared a state of emergency. Last year, however, four governors declared emergencies with over sixty wildfires burning across the country.
The Department of Federal Lands has not commented on Kelley's request. But a spokeswoman for the department says Secretary Bill Kolbes will consider additional funding for Deschire, Wellington, Monomi, Remmington, and Ceona.
Schefsky To Run As Independent In Carova Senate Race
After primary defeat, Schefsky will run as Independent
CAROVA CITY, CAR--After a narrow defeat in Carova's primary last Thursday, incumbent senator Lee Schefsky will continue his bid for re-election as an independent.
Schefsky narrowly lost to fellow conservative Tyler Dodd. The 28-year-old president of the state senate--the youngest in state history--barely won with 50.71% to Schefsky's 49.29%.
After his defeat, pundits and party insiders speculated Schefsky would switch his affiliation to independent, allowing him to stay in the race. And Monday, Schefsky did just that. In a press conference at his Carova City campaign headquarters, the 58-year-old senator told reporters he was "surprised" by the outcome of Thursday's election, but "not shaken."
"I think my staff and I were all taken back a little, but we are in no way giving up," he said.
It had proved to be a tough primary season for Senator Schefsky. Long upset over Schefsky's opposition to the war in Iraq, hard-line conservatives within the state party convinced party activist Judy Padilla to challenge the two-term senator. At the time, Padilla was living in Lial, and not even a legal resident of Carova. In January 2008, however, she purchased a home in Lorenzi, and rapidly began raising funds for her campaign.
The primary field grew in April with the addition of two new candidates: Aldridge mayor Dave Emser and stay-at-home mom Donna Creilo. In May, at the prompting of party officials, Dodd finally entered the race.
Schefsky's opponents quickly sharpened their arrows. In particular, Padilla and Dodd went after the senator for his opposition to war funding and troop deployments. Padilla called him a "so-called conservative," while Dodd accused him of "abandoning the Conservative party and Carovans."
Schefsky defended himself, calling the Iraq war "unjust, unprovoked, and uncalled for." He also claims while he opposes the Iraq war, he has always supported benefits for veterans and active military service members. The senator himself is a veteran of the Vietnam war.
Some confusion in the primary campaign ended last month when Padilla dropped out of the race. In her shocking departure, Padilla publicly confessed she never intended nor wanted to become the party's nominee. Instead, she said, she only wanted to upset Schefsky for his "treasonous" voting record. As expected, Padilla through her full support behind Dodd and fellow rivals Emser and Creilo soon withdrew from the race as well.
Despite the withdrawal of three candidates, the primary election was anything but predictable. Polls by both campaigns and independent groups showed a dead heat race between Shefsky and Dodd. And the suspense continued up until election day, when Dodd defeated Schefsky by less than two points, or just 7,447 votes.
Because of Schefsky's decision to continue his campaign, voters will have three choices on the ballot this fall. Dodd, Schefsky, and NAT Ann Kocheni, former Secretary of Public Health, will all face each other in the general election. What is uncertain is if the divisive CNS primary will give Kocheni an edge in November.
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